Men's Six Nations 2026, Week One

Sixmas is here, on a Thursday night to avoid clashing with the Winter Olympics opening ceremony. For every team there are questions, France have left out some big names and Atonio has been forced to retire after a heart attack. Ireland have all new props and a reworked back line, largely thanks to injuries. England are also missing a lot of props. Wales have a reworked squad, again. Italy have too many injuries in places that they’re short of depth. There’s a sense that Scotland have to deliver now or Townsend will be fired. What will the matches reveal?

France v Ireland

Before the match there was an additional question here, would Dupont and Jalibert manage to work well together. Happily for anyone who isn’t Irish, the answer to that seems to be yes. I would say that about 20-25% of the time when Dupont could have done something, he passed to Jalibert instead, and trusted him to make a decision about what to do. Jalibert, likewise, probably got about 66% of the ball he might expect from Lucu, but it was the best ball he’d get and he could use it to work his magic.

And for about 55 minutes the French played virtually flawless rugby. They gave up their first penalty around the 50th minute and they played all their rugby in the Irish half, as did the Irish! In the rain the French put it down the other end, then played, and hardly made a mistake handling the ball. Ireland kicked short and played fancy formations deep in their own half, despite the rain, and made handling errors that gave the ball back. Usually between their own 10m and 22. The rare French errors were in very much the same part of the pitch. Stupid play by Ireland.

At the 55 minute mark, Galthié just swapped the tight five, plus inside centre. Farrell also rung the changes. The Irish reserves were a step up in quality, overall the French were probably on a par, but the Irish struck and gained confidence, struck again in a good 15 minute spell. Eventually the French rediscovered their own confidence, from a good defensive stand, and finished the stronger with a try as the clock went red. A final score of 36-14 and five tries to two really flatters Ireland, but in the rain it’s not a bad return. Galthié will be happy that the French absorbed the pressure and responded with the final score, as well as that amazing first 55 minutes. Farrell has serious problems.

At the elite level the Irish system, particularly, is very intricate. And with new props and a back line that basically didn’t know each other being millimetres away from where your inside player expects you to be makes a good pass into a bad one, and the ball goes to ground, especially in the wet. By contrast once Dupont put the ball into Jalibert's hands, and that was flawless, the only player in the back line who wasn’t from UBB was Attisogbe and that familiarity showed in fluid handling. Ramos at fullback is from Toulouse as well but wasn’t as regularly in the passing line, although he was great too. By halftime there were 8 handling errors for France, 12 for Ireland, but France had 66% possession and fewer handling errors in the rain. And all the spilt ball was in the Irish half. It evened up a bit in the second half but not much. I’m not 100% sure, but I think most of France’s errors were under contested high kicks (I know Cros knocked on a hard ball near the line, where he was pretty much on his knees and reaching forward, then the ball bounced awkwardly away from, so they weren’t all from high kicks). Some of Ireland’s were too, but many were just dropped passes.

I have to mention LBB's second try. It’s got to be in the running for Try of the Tournament. A nice chip through from Dupont, a volley from Ramos into LBB's hands and a free run in. The chip was a smart play, the Irish backfield was empty. But that kick from Ramos was special. LBB being there to support whatever developed from the initial kick is the epitome of working off the ball, and it is why every player should do it. I don’t know how often it doesn’t pay off, 90% of the time, 99% of the time? But when it does, it’s truly glorious, and you get a try that will be remembered for years, maybe decades to come. Ramos has claimed that the kick was lucky. I’ll believe it was luck that it landed so perfectly for LBB, but he went for that kick out to LBB, pretty deliberately. Luck comes to those who work hardest.

A lot was made of the decision to drop Penaud. A lazy watch of this match will have people saying he would have scored more tries than Attisogbe's late single effort. But that misses how many times Attisogbe won back contestable kicks for France, from both the Irish and his own side, or was involved in kick contests that another teammate won. A number of those led to tries, immediately or within the same possession but multiple phases later. But it also denied the Irish any attacking ball, at least for the first 55 minutes or so. His effort didn’t fall off, the Irish changed their kicking tactics a bit and the French substitutes weren’t quite up to speed. It’s worth noting that LBB was also immense under the high ball, Ramos was probably the worst of the three under the contestable kicks - he was still good, and immaculate under the longer kicks, brilliant as an extra playmaker, a great kicker and so on, but the worst of the back three at that particular skill. It’s also noticeable that, compared to the autumn, the French have clearly worked on their contestable kicks. They’ve always had arguably the best long kicking game in tier one rugby, aided by the number of really good big boots they have. LBB has always been good at competing for shorter kicks, Attisogbe adds that on the other wing. Three fast, tall back row players, and a lock who is good there but an adapted flanker gives them a lot of players who can get up and get their hands up to knock the ball back. And they’ve spent time working on putting players around the jumpers to receive the slapped back ball. That requires the other players to understand where the ball is coming down, who else is around and spread out around an arc behind the jumper. It’s a lot of time, effort and practice on the training ground and in the match, and the starters were exemplary. The subs struggled a bit, I think because the Irish kicked shorter, so the chase was longer. France have added a shorter kicking game to their tactical options. Like they needed to become more dangerous!

Italy v Scotland

It rained in Paris on Thursday. Polite, Parisian, rain unlike the stereotypical Parisian resident. In Rome it also rained, except for a few minutes at the start of the second half. Biblical would be one description. It rained hard enough that Gabby Logan, the halftime presenter for the BBC, who was pitch side, needed to have her umbrella replaced because the rain broke her first one! To put it another way, the match ended up looking like something from the 80’s with water splashing up around every footfall, every player hitting the ground as they were tackled, every ball as it splashed down. And the Stadio Olympico is an ultra-modern pitch with state of the art drainage.

Given that, a lot of this game was remarkably skilled. There was an exception, which we'll get to, and there were certainly errors, some due to the weather, but it wasn’t crazy amounts. We didn’t see hundreds of scrums, possibly not the highest number we're going to see.

Italy struck first with a nicely worked try, a grubber by Brex, collected by Lynagh who slid over on the wet grass. Shortly after Menoncello scored in a similar fashion. Scotland gradually fought back, and also scored two tries. However, Italy scored two penalties to Scotland's one, and that was all she wrote.

That hides a deeper truth. Italy played the conditions well and, whilst I’m sure there are few penalties that their fans will question, one at least springs to mind (I think it was correct, but it was really close), none of them will have the coach swearing. Scotland, on the other hand, I honestly lost count of how many times I texted “stupid penalty” to the WhatsApp group I was in with other people watching it. One gave Italy the winning points and reversed a penalty that would have relieved the pressure on Scotland. One cost them their replacement hooker for 10 minutes, stupid enough, whilst they were inside the Italian 22! The list carries on, those are just two of the worst.

And speaking of the replacement hooker, Ashman, the starter, had an awful day at the lineout. Not straight, overthrown, thrown to Italian jumpers and more. It wasn’t only Ashman, but the Italian front row dominated in the scrums too. It’s worth pointing out that the Italian lineout was a reliable source of possession for them, and when Turner came on the Scottish lineout improved markedly. It was Ashman having a bad day. Normally you would expect about 80% of lineout ball to be good ball, that you can use how you choose. That might be a maul, a pass out to the backs or some fancier play, but it’s there and you’re free to choose when and how you play it. For Scotland, between steals, ball lost forward in the transfer and awful ball delivered (all sides have this, these things account for the roughly 20% of other lineouts) they only got about 25-30% good lineout ball!

If your set pieces, both of them, are not giving you ball, and you’re giving away stupid penalties, you’re going to struggle to win. That Scotland got close is more a reflection of the terrible weather slowing the Italians down than anything else. On another day, they’d probably have won more comfortably.

England v Wales

In the autumn there were signs, from game to game, of Wales improving. Those signs seem to have vanished in this game. They made mistake after mistake, leading to concurrent yellow cards, and an English team that was already on top ran rampant for ten minutes. Equally, when Wales did get into the red zone, they quickly gave the ball away, early engage at the scrum, lost lineout, not tapping the ball at a penalty and the like. At halftime the score was 29-0 and it looked bleak.

I was wondering how much this was genuinely Wales going backwards since November and how much it was a confident and good English team executing well and bullying a Welsh side whose confidence was fragile, at least in part because of off-field nonsense with the reorganisation of the regions.

The second half opened with more of the same, an easy English try as the Welsh defence got far too narrow far too quickly. But then things started to change. As always it’s hard from the outside to be 100% sure why, but Wales were suddenly much sharper. Not perfect, but the passes were crisp and to the hand, the running lines were challenging defenders. Scrums changed from automatic penalties to England into a lottery and for ten minutes Wales were clearly on top, for another ten it was an arm wrestle. Satisfying for me, Itoje came on, about 30s later he trotted off to the sin bin for ten minutes during this period, almost immediately Wales scored a try!

England reapplied the pressure and Welsh discipline started to crumble again. A technically correct but harsh yellow card, but some sterling defence, then a desperate tackle on a diving player that was a fraction high. Probably anywhere else it could be argued not even a penalty, but preventing a try… penalty try, yellow card. Despite being down to 13 again, and under a lot of pressure, the Welsh improvement, ball in hand, remained. That answered the question the first half asked for me. England started at a million miles an hour, bullying Wales. But halftime let Wales regroup, at least in attack. There’s a lot to work on, absolutely, but there are positives to take and build from.

England won convincingly, but against 13 for 20 minutes, and after that start, 48-7 will not feel like enough.

Happy Coaches

1. Quesada. Beating Scotland might have been on his salary bonuses, and Italy won this match two years ago, but actually delivering mattered. Delivering in terrible weather is even better.
2. Galthié. I was tempted to put him first. Everyone, except maybe the most diehard Irish fan, expected the French to win but I don’t think anyone expected them to win like that. In addition, everyone sort of expected a new, contestable kicking, tactic, but the way it blended so seamlessly into their existing game plan, just giving them extra choices, was truly impressive.
3. Borthwick. If France were expected to win, the question on everyone’s lips for England was “by how much?” For 60 minutes England were clearly on top, and for 40 they were running riot. But the Welsh found a spine, scored and stood up and were counted. Very good, but just a little less gloss.
4. Tandy. This was close with Farrell, but the Welsh had a bigger, longer improvement, basically the whole of the second half, and the gulf between the sides was much bigger on paper. There might be more for the Welsh to fix, but the step up from the first half to the second shows that they can make those changes.
5. Farrell. The Irish improvement was shorter lived, only 10-15 minutes, and it’s arguable that a lot of their improvement came from the disruption of six changes by the French. But there were improvements, there’s something to build from.
6. Townsend. After November the Scot’s supposedly took a long, hard look at themselves, learnt the lessons and were ready to challenge the English and French for top spot. I don’t know what lessons they learnt, but the Azzurri ripped the lesson book up and stamped all over it.

Looking Ahead

1. Ireland v Italy. In years gone by, Ireland at home was an easy pick. Now, a confident Italy against a hurting Ireland? It’s a hard call. Ireland have to do better, but they’ve been in decline for a couple of years now and you have to ask, can they? I think advantage to Ireland, but Italy can certainly win this.
2. Scotland v England. If this were any other match, after this weekend's results, you tip England. But… Scotland keep on beating England, especially in Edinburgh. England should win. Scotland need to improve in areas where England can, and will, bully them. My head says England, but my fingers wrote Scotland in the first draft, that’s how conflicted I am!
3. Wales v France. I’m still happy that Wales improved in the second half. But they are facing another top four team, building to the next World Cup and building on their successes. We don’t really know just how bad Ireland have become yet, but France could easily be as dominant, if not more, in this match, and not have to worry about the weather with the roof. I expect France to win, and win by a big margin. I’m hoping that Wales have a good spell in each half and overall play better. Small margins, but steps forward.