Eloise's Thoughts and Fancies

 Today, Andy Burnham becomes our seventh Prime Minister in ten years. In case you're struggling to remember them all, here's the list: David Cameron Theresa May Boris Johnson Liz Truss Rishi Sunak Sir Keir Starmer Andy Burnham Some Stats This is very unusual for us as a country, we've had 64 PMs since 1721 when Walpole was the first, for an average duration of 4 years 281 days, several of them lasting over 20 years, and 21 lasting less than a year, the Truss 50 days being a disaster. The median duration, probably a better measure since there are some weird tales and a skew to the numbers, is a bit under 2 years (1 year 318 days), so it, whilst this period is unusual for modern times, it is perhaps less unusual than it appears. Cameron, who is fence-posting here, was in office for six years, a bit longer than average, but fours times longer than the median. Across my adult life the PMs have been: Margaret Thatcher 11 years 209 days John Major 6 years 156 days Tony Blair 10 y...

 Carrying on the trend I started last week, I'm going to rank the teams, and indirectly their coaches, in how well I think they did. As last week, this will be based on a combination of their performance, and the expectation of their performance. So, for example, Italy are widely expected to lose, but if they go out and make the All Blacks work, they'll get a higher rating than if England scrape to a win over Fiji, who they are expected to beat. (I'm writing this preamble on Friday, before any of the games have been played, I might look very silly if both the AB and England put 100 on their opponents.) Scotland  Yes they lost, but against South Africa in South Africa, they were meant to lose. With five minutes to go Scotland were taking two bonus points from this game, four tries and within seven points, until the Boks stole a try, very much against the run of play, to take away that second point. But this team faced up to the might and main of the Boks, largely defended su...

 Rather than traditional reviews, since I didn’t get the chance to watch all the matches, I’m going to comment on the impact of each result for each team. This will be kind of a “Happy Coaches” thing but with a broader context than just one week, and influenced by the standings in the North and South tables.  Wales  Tandy  et al  will be delighted with their excellent win over Fiji. This was a tough match on paper, Fiji are more highly rated than Wales, and despite a healthy points margin, it was a tough match on the day. The team made and took their chances, in tight play and out wider, and defended well against a free-flowing Fiji. They have continued to build on what they were doing in the M6N. There may be sterner tests ahead, but a great start. Scotland  Likewise Townsend. This was close until the last few minutes when the Scots pulled away and could finally relax a little. But Argentina away was a tough ask, doubly so without Russell. If I were a gamb...

Every game this week has questions on the line. Can Wales finally win a game? Will Ireland rue their performance against France and have to settle for third or can Scotland upset them too? Can France finally defeat England? Wales v Italy In the first half this match was very much tit-for-tat. Italy would score and Wales would hit back. The difference between them was marginal, in all aspects of the game, Italy edged turnovers, Wales edged territory and set pieces, and thanks to slightly better kicking, the scoreboard 19-17. Then came the second half. It wasn’t quite one-way traffic, but Italy scored four tries before the Welsh replied. They scored one and were a bit unlucky not to score a second. Brian Moore always says you don’t deserve to score, but seven tries to five feels to me, as a biased Welsh fan, like a fairer reflection of the balance of the match. Italy were markedly better, but not that much better. Wales seem to have a weird problem. Overall their second halves have b...

Really there probably aren’t any interesting matches this week. England should sweep aside Italy in Parma, even on the road France should beat Scotland and whilst Wales are improving, Ireland at home are probably still a step too far. England v Italy England tried to make it interesting, with multiple changes to their tight five. Some were forced through injury, some were selection choices. In most aspects of the game it really didn’t seem to affect them. Italy scored a try from a driving maul, it’s debatable whether a more experienced group of forwards, familiar with each other could have stopped it or not. Italy also scored a penalty try when Kildunne deliberately knocked the ball on out on the wing and 5m from the try line, absolutely killing an overlap. The former Red Rose commentator was outraged, saying “but there was cover there,” which might have mattered if they were 15m out, but given the cover tacklers were pretty much on the 15m line and the person who should have received...

This week feels like the week that is probably the most predictable, at least going into it, in terms of results. England are going to beat Wales, the only real question is, can we continue to see signs of Welsh improvement, even against the Red Roses? Italy have been poor, Scotland mid, but mid beats poor, even away. And whilst Ireland are trying to challenge for second place, doing so in France, and with Ratier keen to have a big improvement after last week’s terrible first 25 minutes feels like a bridge too far. The Games England v Wales So one side of the ledger you have England scoring 10 tries in a comfortable victory. That should be measured against the 12 they scored last week against Scotland as a benchmark, and the four missed conversions are an indication of how wide many of those tries were dotted down which, in turn, is a reflection of hard the Welsh defence kept working, kept making the English make another pass, and another one. Most of the time they were good enough to...