Men's Six Nations 2025, Week 4

This weekend starts with the match that every pundit had marked as the championship decider: Ireland v France. France dropping a million tries in Twickenham didn’t stop that, but it means if they win they almost certainly stop Ireland not only racking up a record breaking three in a row, but another Grand Slam. Then we have Wales v Scotland and questions are swirling around both sides. Are Wales really starting to surge in form under Sherratt or was it a dead cat bounce? Scotland have turned out to be nearly men again, can they actually put it together this week? Finally we have England v Italy. On paper, England should continue their unbeaten streak, but the team selection seems odd, and the English wide defence is not their strength while it’s the mainstay of the Italian attack. Reversing that, who knows what the English attacking strength is? England have to start as favourites but Italy have to be in with a real chance.

The Matches

Ireland v France

This match really has a few big talking points.

For essentially all of the match, until France relaxed because it was over, the Irish fans were leaving in droves, Ireland created opportunities but couldn’t score. They scored a penalty right at the end of the first half, then tries at 78 and 80 minutes. Nothing in between. With about ten minutes to go, the TV showed a stat that illustrates it even better. Ireland had six visits to the French 22 and 7 points. On the flip side, the French scored almost at will. At the same time they'd had nine visits and scored 29 points! With a late flourish, Ireland dragged the score back so they lost 42-27, but a bonus point win for France and no bonus point for Ireland puts Les Bleus in control of their own destiny.

After 28 minutes Dupont was taken off with what looked like a nasty knee injury, probably ligament damage (now confirmed as a torn ACL), as Beirne fell into his leg. The referee and TMO assessed this as a rugby incident but the French were aggrieved and, although we didn’t see many replays, I’ve seen red cards for similar things this year. Although France and Toulouse both have deep resources, let’s hope Dupont isn’t out for long (probably 6-9 months, ouch). On the back of this Lucu came on and had what I think was his best game for France. I think the French helped him by moving Ramos up to play in the 10 slot in attack. Ramos is much more of a leader at 10 than Ntamack, much more like Jalibert, and the team are comfortable playing outside Ramos, so it worked nicely.

After about 45 minutes, Barassi suffered in a high tackle and went on to fail his HIA. Normally this wouldn’t be an issue but Galthié had picked a 7-1 bench and Lucu was already on. Jegou was chosen as his substitute and had a good half. He made the odd mistake, but none were punished by a try, and he made a lot of good tackles and scored a try. For a flanker playing in what’s typically regarded as the hardest defensive position, job well done.

Last week, Italy tore holes in the French defence, exploiting gaps between Meafona and Barassi. Now I’m sure Edwards has had them working on it for the last fortnight, but Ireland never looked to exploit it. On the flip side, we’ve got used to the Irish shape in attack, a line of three with someone in the boot and JGP selecting the right one of the four. That shape was largely absent and Ireland looked slow in attack, even when they’d had all the ball and all the pressure.

Although LBB won POTM, two tries caught the voters' eyes, Cros was immense and Moefana too, another player who probably had his best game for his country. A big part of this game was France’s defence and one of them deserved it.

Galthié has some hard questions to answer for next week. Who will start in the 9 and 10 shirts? Who will start in the 13 shirt? Unlikely though it seems, who will start in the 14 shirt? For 79 minutes Penaud was between very good and excellent, and he made one of LBB's tries, supported Ramos to score one of his own. But for that other minute he was lazy and got lucky that Ireland were playing badly.

Scotland v Wales

This was an odd match to watch, not just because I’m a Wales fan. For most of the first fifty minutes or so it looked as if Scotland had bounced back, the Welsh performance against Ireland had been a dead cat bounce, and even the ball was bouncing in Scotland's favour.

Then the replacements started appearing and the game shifted. If Wales had not, correctly, had a try disallowed they would actually have won. As it is, two bonus points (four tries and losing by less than seven points) suggests that the Welsh resurgence is real. If Scotland had not been so fired up after throwing away their win in Twickenham a fortnight ago it’s tempting to imagine Wales would have won this. That fast start by Scotland might still have happened of course, but there really was a sense of urgency and something to prove, and that knocked the stuffing out of the Welsh starters. The reserves came on, raised the energy of the remaining starters and off they went. At the same time, it seemed that the Scottish replacements drained the emotion that had made them start so well. It didn’t look like a second half drop from a team out of sight, it really was delayed by fifteen minutes or so, until the subs started to arrive.

Scotland won because they were a mile ahead early, two tries in ten minutes, two more by halftime, another one five minutes after. Wales snuck a try in the first half, despite largely looking blunt in attack, four more (one disallowed) after the hour mark. They’re still losing matches that on a good day they might win, but they’re competing with much better teams, a good start.

England v Italy

This was an odd game to watch. In quite a few of the little things that often seem to turn the game, like kick-chase and breakdown work, Italy were clearly better. Brex and Menoncello were immense on both sides of the ball. When they could mount a counterattack they looked, and honestly were, irresistible. The Italian scrum held parity, and in most respects so did their lineout - the English maul after a lineout was generally better than the Italian effort being the exception.

But somehow England ran out comfortable victors. Some of that was their ability to smother any sort of structured, close range attack from the Italians. Some was a desire, almost overplayed, to get the ball wide. When it worked, as it did several times, they typically used their big forwards carrying close a few times, then went wide, or they did it on first phase against a narrow defensive line. All too often they went early and it was snuffed out easily, or they went deep and Brex (not only him, but many times him) shot out of the line, made the tackle and stopped the play. Marcus Smith, having been dropped to the bench, came on early for an injury and scored a glorious try as well as being excellent in the air. Cant play fullback? Yeah, right.

The English press will be ecstatic, and the English attack fired for about an hour. Then it just stopped. Looking at the M6N, France, usually Scotland and even Ireland, keep on attacking, even in matches when it’s not going well. Blowing chances, and England were nearly as profligate as Ireland except for 15 minutes after halftime, is one thing, especially when it’s a new attacking strategy. But not really attacking in the last 25 minutes when you have probably more than half the ball is not good.

Italy were in this at halftime. 21-17 down. But they conceded three quick tries and, although they scored late, they kept playing, that 15 minutes cost them the game. Good teams might concede just after halftime, but they rarely concede 21 points, and they can fight back. Italy did neither.

Happy Coaches

1. Galthié. France are in pole position and inflicted a record score on Ireland in Dublin. While the loss of Dupont could still be huge, they coped with that. There are questions for the week ahead, but job done.
2. Borthwick. Despite the errors and the flat last quarter this was a better England than we’ve seen so far. You can’t say “only Italy” any more, even though they’ve had one of their worst recent 6N campaigns. There is a lot to do still, but there is something genuinely positive here.
3. Townsend and Sherratt. I flip-flop on the order of these two, so I made them equal. Both have a lot of positives to take away from this match, but also negatives. But those positives are present and shouldn’t be ignored.
4. Quesada. Really Italy lost this match when England had a really good 15 minutes after the halftime break. That is worrying, but the rest of the performance from Italy was pretty good. There is quite a lot to work on, but some good positives too.
5. Easterby. Not only did Ireland lose, despite scoring two tries in the last minute, they were thrashed, at home. Their attack looked impotent and while their defence slowed the French scoring down, it looked like a sleeping policeman in front of a joyrider, an inconvenience rather than a real problem. Ireland finish against Italy but I imagine Easterby will be happy to step back to a more junior role.

Looking Ahead

It’s the last weekend already and, as has become traditional, we have all three matches on Super Saturday. France are in control of their own destiny, a bonus point win and they’re champions. But lose and there’s a chance for Scotland, Ireland or England to take the crown.

1. Italy v Ireland. Ireland need to win, ideally with a bonus point and that’s all that matters. Italy at home are a challenge and, while I think Ireland’s decline has been laid bare for all to see, I don’t think they’ll lose this one. A bonus point victory might be beyond them in Rome though.
2. Wales v England. England also need to win with a bonus point to keep the pressure up. But, honestly I think the outcome of this match is down to the Welsh. Reductively speaking we had the 1h ‘bad’ Welsh and the 20m ‘good’ Welsh on display on Saturday. If we get those times reversed, Wales win. If they’re closer to 40m and 40m I think Wales win. At 60m and 20m I don’t know. And this is Wales v England in Cardiff. Wales win.
3. France v Scotland. France just need to win really, a bonus point and they’re untouchable but their points difference is so huge it would take a miracle for them to lose on the tiebreaker. No Dupont, Serin called into the squad. No Barassi, Brau-Boirie in for him (why not Depoortere?). It will be interesting to see the French 23, but I can’t see them losing, even with these disruptions they have too much class.