Men's Six Nations 2025, Week One

It’s Sixmas!

At the top of the table the heavyweights of France and Ireland are favourites at the bookies. Personally I lean towards France, expecting Ireland to continue their decline, but we shall see. Scotland are, as has become pretty normal for them, lurking as dark horses.

Lower down, everyone is wondering whether Italy can build on last year’s successes, whether (and when) Wales will break their record losing streak and exactly what the new look England will produce. We’ve been promised a reworked defence and a freer attack, so who knows?

Before I Start On The Matches

I just want to begin by saying I thought the referees in all three matches were excellent. Odd little decisions that I’m not going to highlight that I thought could have been different but none that I thought were dramatically, clearly wrong. I know that will not be popular with a body of Welsh online trolls and probably others - I’ve seen an England fan’s YouTube review and he wasn’t happy about several decisions. Whilst there were mistakes I’m sure, they were fewer and further between than those the players made.

France v Wales

An opening night clash with favourites France, in Paris is a big stretch for a team looking to break a historically long losing streak. France might traditionally be slow starters but, even though Wales have some experience restored to their ranks, they’re still needing a spark.

As a Wales fan, the attack is hard to judge. France have a great defence and Wales rejigged their attack after about 15 minutes due to an injury. That put a debutant at 10 and a guy with 3 caps at 12 who, while he splits his time for his club between 10 and 12, is probably best suited to test rugby at 10, especially up against the diminutive Moefana. But I can live with that, we’ll play teams with worse defences and with a more settled attacking structure.

In defence, it seems odd to say when you’ve lost 43-0, but Wales have clearly improved from the Autumn. They tried a fairly complicated defence that aimed to contain Dupont, restrict the other runners - going high and stopping offloads rather than hitting them back - over much of the pitch, but switching to a more aggressive, knock them down defence as they got into the 22. Did this work? Clearly not perfectly! But actually, to a large extent, yes. Dupont was not completely neutralised, but was subdued and reined in for large parts of the game. That didn’t stop him producing a number of outrageous try assists, but he still looked quieter than normal. Likewise, the French attack certainly clicked at times, but was held in check for chunks of the game as well.

Wales also had functioning scrums and lineouts, something they’d missed all of last year. Maybe not on a par with the French, but close - and that’s really an accomplishment. The French, along with the South Africans and Kiwis, fight it out for the best scrummagers in the world. Being close to them is a major achievement for a side that had been giving away penalties like party favours last year.

For all the disruption that Wales caused, France scored seven tries. Some of them were Dupont doing Dupont shit and creating tries from nowhere, others were well worked team tries. Le Garrec replaced Dupont early, the match was over as a contest and apparently Dupont had a tight calf but, unlike Lucu, Le Garrec kept Les Bleus purring and moving in attack smoothly.

Wales have lessons to learn, particularly in attack, but positives to build from. France have minor corrections to make, little errors and rust to knock off. They’ll be better for this game.

Scotland v Italy

This was an odd match to watch. It played out in three sections really. Pretty much through the first half Scotland sort of looked on top, scoring three tries, but they could never quite pull away because they kept giving up penalties and, unlike Wales, Italy kicked their points. While there is always an argument for that, part of that is down to the fact that Wales had a functioning lineout, Italy didn’t. It was an easy choice for the Azurri.

But then the Italians roared into life, and Scotland dipped. The match was tied and tense. Finally Italy slipped off the pace a little, Scotland expanded their ambitions again and ran away with it. Italy had a late flourish but couldn’t quite pull it back to earn a losing bonus point.

As a Scotland supporter I know said, they looked like they’re capable of winning the championship and the wooden spoon, all in one game! That’s harsh but not completely unreasonable. At their best, Scotland looked great, not quite scoring at will, but scoring comfortably. However, there were too many penalties, that kept Italy in touch, and when they fell off the pace, an Italian side that had looked pretty but ineffectual suddenly scored and looked dangerous. Given Quesada has shifted Italy to be a defence-first team, something highlighted by Garbisi of all players winning a turnover penalty on the 5m line where two years ago he’d have thrown his hands up and backed away, Five tries is not a bad return in the first match against a defence-first team.

Both these teams have to improve. Scotland could beat Ireland at Murrayfield and, with luck, France away. They need to improve their discipline and not fall asleep for 20 minutes. Italy need to improve on both sides of the ball. Wales might not challenge their defence too much, but won’t be giving away penalties either. France and probably Ireland are another matter. England remains unclear. Italy's attack needs work too.

Ireland v England

This was, arguably, the most interesting match.

England announced early, with a team that swerved had from anything we’ve seen from Borthwick before. They were small and mobile, there wasn’t a lineout jumper in the back row and, while the starting front row wasn’t full of new names, it could be argued that it was picked for play around the paddock over scrummaging. There were a lot of young faces on the bench that promised more of the same. In the media, living in England, I’ve been “treated” to news of a new defensive system, the teamsheet seems to support that, and an altered attacking strategy too.

Ireland looked mostly settled, but the search for a replacement for Sexton continues, with Prendergast drawing the short straw for this game.

The game itself, to use a cliché, really deserves to be called a game of two halves. In the first half England played with almost breakneck pace. They stiffed the Irish attack almost completely, but in the dying minutes of the half Ireland snuck a try. England themselves scored a really nice try and a penalty. 10-5 at half time. Both parts of Borthwick’s pre-game statements seemed to be coming true but there were issues. England really took their only two chances to score. Their super-fast defence, when it was legal - in fairness probably legal well over 90% of the time - really messed up the Irish. But, despite that success, it was leaking penalties like a sieve. They got warned, they got carded, they got warned again. Arguably they were lucky to not get carded again. You see faster cards for head contact and the like, but how many penalties are you leaking if you’re warned and then carded for too many penalties by 25 minutes? That continuous drip of penalties gave territory and possession to the Irish. The lack of a third jumper meant the Irish lineout was pretty dominant too, as was the Irish front row. It wasn’t absolute, but more things went their way than not at set piece.

The second half answered the second question that I’m sure everyone had. How long could England keep this pace up? Maybe 35 minutes in the first half and then 10 in the second. The second half was made harder by the Irish adapting and taking a step backwards, so they had that little bit more time, that tempted the English offside more often and let the Irish play a bit more successfully. And as the fatigue set in the Irish drew level then pulled ahead. Looking at the scoreline will suggest it was close but England scored a try in the first ten minutes, a penalty right at the end of the first half, and then looked toothless until the last five minutes, when the Irish, 17 points up, relaxed a bit and let England get close. The blowhards will say “look, England scored in the last quarter,” an issue in the autumn. Even though that’s technically true they were outscored 22-12 and only managed to score after the other team took their foot off the English throat. I can’t see France, South Africa or New Zealand doing that. Argentina are getting better at playing the full 80, as are Australia and Italy. England need to play a lot better and don’t have long to get it right.

Happy Coaches

1. Galthié. Even with the red card to Ntamack, and the rust, France went out and performed. Most points scored, fewest conceded, no big problems on the pitch to address - tweaks and tuning rather than glaring issues. A choice about Jalibert or Ramos at 10, but we know Les Bleus function well with either.
2. Easterby and Townsend. I found it impossible to decide between these two. They both got victories and bonus points. They both have positives to take away. But they both have negatives too. Those negatives are different and complicated to compare. Easterby put in a baby 10 who faced the most aggressive defence I think I’ve ever seen - and coped ok - but was taken off just as it ran out of steam. That seems cruel. But Edwards now has a couple of models of how to stop the Irish attack working and time to implement it. Townsend has a team that turned off and let the Italians back into the game and were lucky to not go behind. Italy are definitely improving but if you’re a dark horse for the championship Italy should not be doing that to you.
3. Quesada. Italy still have some major issues but they went out and performed defensively for quite big chunks of that game as he’s asking them too. In attack they were frustrating to watch, a lot of pretty moves with a final pass going astray of similar, and that suggests they’re not far away there. Italy will be targeting Wales but should also be thinking about a first win over England if they’re persisting with this suicidal tactic.
4. Gatland. Rounds two, and especially four (Ireland v France) will probably determine the champions but Wales are not involved in that. After a terrible 2024, the team, the WRU and the Welsh public are looking for improvements and a win. We didn’t get a win, but no one with half a brain expected one. We didn’t get thrashed - I was worried about shipping 60+ points, remember Toulouse v Leicester a couple of weeks ago - and the set piece was a massive improvement from last year. Dupont conjured three tries from nothing but otherwise the Welsh defence wasn’t all that bad. A lot of things to work on, but things have got better.
5. Borthwick. Why is Borthwick under Gatland? Wales, in 11th were outplayed by France in 4th. Shock. But their systems kept France working for 80 minutes, even if not necessarily in top gear. Borthwick’s defensive new look choked an Irish side with a new fly half, sure, but only for half the game. It also leaked penalties like they were going out of fashion. The English set piece was outplayed if not outright dominated by the Irish. When the English attack fired it looked nice, but when is an important word there. For 70 minutes they were nowhere near the Irish try line, because of penalties, fatigue and whatever. Then Ireland relaxed because the game was over. A “system” that the players can only maintain for half a game is not worth using. Good teams survive that and score big in the second half. This is basically what Ireland did, five points in the first half and 22 in the second. Borthwick’s new plan might only be one game old, but it already looks seriously flawed. A step backwards. And that’s why he’s last.

Looking Forward

Italy v Wales

I can construct scenarios in which both of these sides beat England. Particularly Wales who could face a demoralised England at home in the final round. Italy play them away. But, realistically, this looks like the wooden spoon decider. Italy will be favourites, but don’t do well with that tag. Wales performed decently against a much better French team. Italy are not France so it will be interesting to see how the Welsh manage against lesser opponents. Equally, though, Wales are not Scotland so we might see the Italians improve.

My heart says Wales of course. My head can’t decide.

England v France

I can see Galthié pulling something fancy, starting Lucu to survive the sturm und drang then putting Dupont on to torment a tired England for example, but even without that, the French are just too strong in depth for it to matter. Give Ramos shots at goal and you’re in trouble. Give up ball at lineouts and territory from penalties at scrum time and the French backs will score against you.

I’m sure there are ways England can win. But they mostly involve the French not trying, or a red card or two. After last year I think too many of them are on a mission. France to win by a lot.

Scotland v Ireland

I think this is as hard to call as the Italy v Wales game, but for different reasons. The Scotland we saw for most of the match comfortably contained Italy and scored pretty freely. But Ireland, even in decline, are a different prospect. Equally though, England took the chances that they created, Ireland were inefficient in attack and not really good in defence. Their victory was really built on the lack of discipline from the English. While Scotland were a bit profligate with their penalties they were not as bad as the English, and were better in attack. Whilst the Irish were harried in the first half and came back in the second, the Scots have the potential to play for most if not all of the game. They certainly have an attack that can stretch the Irish defence. England’s attack is poor but managed to score three tries. We can quibble about the details, I have above, but Ireland leaked three tries to one of the worst attacking teams in the top ten. Scotland’s attack is far more potent and they can score from close range or long distance. They will make chances, can Ireland stop them?

I’ve talked myself into a Scottish victory. But with low confidence.