Autumn Internationals 2024, Week Two

The Matches

This weekend mostly saw North v South (France v Japan was a rare exception) and quite a few new and old grudge matches lined up, with replays of various matches from the World Cup coming through.

Ireland v New Zealand

This game was a huge start to the weekend. It saw the number one v number three sides in the world facing off, but for around 100 years New Zealand never lost a game to Ireland. Over the last five years, Ireland have beaten the All Blacks no less than eight times, including a 2-1 series win in New Zealand but a quarterfinal loss in last year’s World Cup. This might not have the history of the rivalry between New Zealand and South Africa, but over the last few years it’s become just as intense.

Defensively you can argue that the game lived up to expectations. There were some huge tackles, attacks were stymied, ball spilled under the weight of the tackles and so on. Both sides only scored one try. The All Blacks handled that better and played most of the game in the right parts of the pitch. They came out as deserving winners.

What was poor was, sadly, the referee. He wasn’t biased, but he let the breakdown run away into chaos and while you can argue the Irish took better advantage of that, they also tipped over the edge more often and got whistled off the park. I didn’t see a territory stat, but I’d be pretty surprised if it wasn’t 75%+ in favour of the All Blacks. It felt like every time the Irish infringed (it wasn’t, but it was often) DMac stepped up and kicked a penalty. Only six in the end (it felt like more).

The Irish try was a power move against a 14-man AB side. The AB try was a thing of beauty, moving the ball from one side of the pitch to the other and then back to the first and scoring in the corner.

Ireland can make excuses: they had injuries and, essentially, a second choice front row; it was their first game since the summer and they were rusty. However, I have been wondering if they are on a long, slow slide from their peak for some time. To me this game looked like another step down that slope.

New Zealand were not perfect, the team of 2011-15 would have done better, but they went into a game that was, on paper, one they were expected to lose, and, on the pitch, never looked like losing. They are improving week after week. I said last week that I thought some of that lustre of always finding a way to win was coming back. This result, comfortably defeating the side that did the most to remove it, will have done a lot to restore it. They are probably not ready to defeat the Bokke yet, but they are building back up.

There are things for them both to improve and the All Blacks have improved since last week, will be looking to continue doing so again in Paris next week. Ireland are facing off against Argentina. I am not dismissing Los Pumas, it will be a question of which team turns up. They went from defeating the All Blacks one week to being thrashed by them the week after, with basically the same team. Ireland might lose to the first side, but thrash the second.

England v Australia

This game was much more fun than the previous one. In part that was because, while it’s not fair to call it defence optional, the defences were poor, brave - I think the final count was three players taken off after being knocked out making tackles - but not actually very good. Unlike last week, where the All Blacks butchered multiple chances in various ways, the Wallabies took theirs. You can argue that they left a few points behind, taking three at times when I thought they had the momentum and could have gone for a try, but I don’t think they missed any scoring opportunities. Pretty much the same could be said of England mind, definitely some cautious “take the three” decisions when their lineout was good all day and their pack looked pretty dominant for most of the game, so perhaps that cancels out?

A bit like last week, this was a game that ran in sections. England were dominant for 20 minutes and ran out to a 15-3 lead. Then Australia fought back and had a narrow lead by halftime. That lead stretched to ten points, was pegged back to a two point England lead and then a try after the whistle sealed a win for the Wallabies.

Before the match, much was made of Suaalii playing his first professional game as a Wallaby. He picked up POTM, and was well worth it in my opinion.

Schmidt will undoubtedly be happy with this result but there’s a lot still to do. The Australian press might make you think otherwise, but Schmidt and the smarter fans always knew that. England’s woes are getting deeper. Sure they scored five tries but that’s against the worst team in TRC. Their attack actually looks mechanical and predictable, until they’re down and Smith throws the playbook out of the window, when they suddenly look dangerous. They need to do that throughout the game. But England conceded five tries and three penalties. They lost control of the game at crucial times and in critical places. For a team that’s meant to be building a World Cup winning defence, the holes NZ found last week and that the Wallabies exploited this week is not good enough.

Italy v Argentina

A decent Argentina showed up I think, at least a pragmatic one. They didn’t show a lot really, but they never had too. Italy, on the other hand, went from the sublime to the ridiculous, often in successive phases.

It’s a shame because, at their best, Italy were very much the best team on the pitch and, arguably, the best team of the weekend. The game played in heaven was played in Azurri blue, in brief, disjointed patches. (Scotland were the best team in a solid chunk over 10-15 minutes, Italy the best over 10-15 seconds.) Argentina clung on in those moments and waited for the ridiculous phase that inevitably followed, when Italy would just give them the ball in softest fashion.

Capuozzo left the game early, having knocked himself out making a tackle. He’d looked great, and Italy hadn’t been making such dramatic errors while he was on. It’s not clear that he’d have changed the course of the game but he might.

In the final 20 minutes, Argentina ran in three tries to blow the score out. It would be wrong to say that Italy were blown, as they might have been a decade ago, but Los Pumas stayed just a little bit sharper and it showed.

Unless you’re an Argentina fan, where a 50-18 victory is good, this match wasn’t all that great to watch. It kept threatening to burst into a real competition but stayed a mess. Argentina will have their tails up for a poor Ireland next week.

France v Japan

This was the match that everyone felt that they knew the result of before the first whistle was blown. Of most interest really was the kiddies playing for France, with young props, centres and full-back selected (Ramos was selected at 10 with Ntamack injured) and, thanks to sickness a young winger replacing Penaud.

The actual result went the way everyone expected, with France winning 52-12, scoring five tries in the first half and three in the second. Japan scored their two tries in the second half, and had a couple of tries ruled out for great defensive work from France. It’s tempting to suggest this makes it a game of two halves, but really that’s only the case for Japan, who were terrible in the first half and somewhat better in the second. Scoring eight tries and 50+ points sounds like a pretty solid performance but actually France had quite a few things that they did poorly. Not on a system level, but moments, Dupont threw a pass that went by three people who all watched it instead of taking the ball was one memorable moment. Oddly, I think Galthié will be happy with that, having things to work on before the Kiwis turn up next week is better than having everyone feel complacent.

That said, all the youngsters looked good. It’s going to be interesting to see who he chooses next week. (This is at least partially affected by injuries, Penaud is still sick, Cros is concussed, Attisogbe (who replaced Penaud) is out injured.

Wales v Fiji

Although I don’t place great stock in the world rankings, Fiji were above Wales before this match started and by enough points that they were predicted to win despite the Welsh being at home. Sadly, for me, that turned out to be accurate.

From my perspective, this was a game of woulda, coulda, shoulda. Wales created more chances and dotted the ball down more often than Fiji but one way or another had four tries or golden opportunities chalked off. Unlike the AB last week, they’re not good enough to do that and win. Only losing by five points after doing that shows how close they are to turning the corner - just a little bit of luck and they’d have won this game, but Fiji took their chances better and deserved their victory.

Wales’ bad luck started early, with Mason Grady going off injured after 17 minutes. Wales had looked secure but not particularly threatening going tight, but out on the wings it was a different story, Winnett, Murray and Grady were making metres and scoring tries for fun (By the 17 minute mark Murray had scored and Winnett had one chalked off). Grady was replaced by Costelow who is a decent 10, and accelerates well for a few steps to make a break, but is far too slow to be a winger or full back, and while he strove heroically, he wasn’t a threat in attack. He was decent in defence to give him his dues, and did some ok things in the middle of the park too, where a wing might come in as an extra player.

There are positives for Wales - if they’d taken all their chances they would have won easily - but when you’re in a slump, the rub of the green doesn’t go for you and that was the case this time. Fiji took all their chances and, once they edged in front their confidence grew, the Welsh confidence drained away and that was all she wrote.

This was a game where there were a lot of cards, a penalty try, two cards referred to the bunker and different results. It’s hard to comment these days because we only see one, maybe two, replays and then it’s off to the bunker. From what I saw, they looked similar, and either both red or both yellow seemed right. Now there are a lot of other angles and I don’t know what they showed - and that’s a problem with the bunker. In this game it made the decisions look bad. I’m not saying they were, just that they appeared to be.

Congratulations to Fiji on taking the chances and winning in Cardiff for the first time.

Scotland v South Africa

This game ended up far closer than I think anyone expected, at least until the final minute, when SA scored a try to stretch it out to a 17 point lead.

South Africa didn’t actually play, well really for the whole game, certainly in attack. Their lineout was not good for large parts of the match. While Zander Fagerson was on their scrum didn’t really creak often, but it wasn’t dominant either, once he was subbed, the SA scrum produced ball, metres and penalties pretty much at will. That dominance led to the fourth try that stretched the scoreline to a flattering 17 point lead.

Where the Bokke did perform was in defence. I commented above that England are trying to build a World Cup winning defence. I’m not sure how you do that when you let a prop make nine line breaks but that’s the plan… South Africa showed the actual execution. There was a 10-15 minute period where I think Scotland were running the best attack we saw all weekend over that time period. That includes France thrashing Japan and Argentina thrashing Italy. Both of them, particularly France were definitely better over the full game, but if you choose their best 10 minute period, Scotland were amazing, and the best we saw this weekend. However, the South African defence just smothered them, and restricted them to kicking penalties rather than scoring tries. This is obviously what England are trying, and failing, to do, but you can see why it’s the plan.

This was a game that was compelling to watch, because Scotland stayed close, but there was always a feeling that SA were not quite clicking. Whether that was rust or a second choice back line isn’t clear.

Both coaches will take positives from this. As a neutral, Scotland were expected to lose but performed well and made it look like a fight. They’ll be a challenge come the Six Nations. South Africa knocked the rust off, saw some fringe players get some time and experience and it went well for them.

Happy Coaches.

1. Robinson. The AB not only won comfortably, they corrected a lot of the mistakes from last week. The Razor plan for the AB was visible and while it didn’t fire smoothly, it fired and worked. There’s more to work on, but you can see the players both understand and believe in the systems and they’re seeing the systems work.
2. Schmidt. I debated where to put Schmidt. A win is obviously great, and it was arguably more unexpected than the AB win. But the extra history in that game and the comfortable nature of the final result elevates it in my mind.
3. Byrne. Although Fiji might have been meant to win, actually winning in Cardiff for the first time is huge. That lifts Byrne above several coaches for whom it’s job done. I considered an even higher placing, but I think the wins for New Zealand and Australia were even bigger.
4. Galthié. Like Argentina, this was job done for France. But I’m putting Galthié above Contepomi and Rassie because all the French debutants turned up and looked good.
5. Contepomi. Job done for Argentina. They were meant to win this one and they did. There were quite a few injuries affecting the squad, so a bit of strength in depth that, from the outside, we might not have known about. A good start for bigger things to come.
6. Erasmus. On one hand this was job done. On the other, although the defence was good, the attack wasn’t as good. So, bottom of the winning coaches.
7. Townsend. Scotland looked good against the side that have moved back to number one in the world. There are issues but there are good things too.
8. Gatland. While the rest of the world is focused on “Wales lost again” if you watch the game, a little bit of luck, a bit of confidence and they could have won it. He may not get a victory this November, but if he can get the team to buy in, the pieces are there.
9. Quesada. Italy were meant to lose this, although they’ll have hoped to win. Although there were a lot of mistakes and things to work on, there were a lot of positives in this game, particularly the first half, so the building blocks are there.
10. Jones. Japan were expected to lose this and, although they improved in the second half, they were abject in the first half and didn’t have those flashes of excellence that Italy showed.
11. Farrell. Not everything was doom and gloom, but there was a lot that needs to improve for Ireland to stand a chance of beating even the bad Pumas.
12. Borthwick. It might seem harsh to put Borthwick this low, but the things England are meant to be good at were bad.

Looking Ahead

Friday

• Ireland v Argentina. The book says Ireland but recent form has Argentina having beaten both South Africa and New Zealand while Ireland certainly didn’t look close to a world number one, nor a world number three (their new position) last week. We will see if Ireland are in decline or if Farrell can get them to lift. Likewise, Argentina in TRC, were a bit up and down. Can they build on their victory over Italy and move on to beat Ireland. Vamanos Los Pumas!

Saturday

• Scotland v Portugal. Presumably this will be a Scotland A team but they will still beat Portugal. It’s still good to see them though.
• England v South Africa. It’s hard to see England winning this, although they’ll be desperate. It will be interesting to see who Rassie picks and whether England score any tries. I’m thinking no.
• France v New Zealand. This is probably the match of the weekend. Two top four teams, New Zealand seeking revenge for their loss in the opening of the World Cup. Too close to call before seeing team sheets.

Sunday

• Italy v Georgia. Italy are in a bit of disarray, Georgia have something to prove. I’m not sure who wins, I’d expect it to be Italy but I say that with no confidence.
• Wales v Australia. Wales are desperately seeking confidence and a win, Australia will be buoyed after a confidence-building, unexpected victory. Wales can win this but, sadly, I expect the Wallabies to extend Welsh misery.