Autumn Internationals 2024, Week Three

After a southern hemisphere whitewash last week, can the northern hemisphere mount any sort of resistance?

There are some interesting matchups, will Ireland bounce back or can Argentina claim the final Top Eight scalp and their first victory over Ireland at home? How will France and New Zealand and then Wales and Australia match up? One is a clash of two of the rugby elites, albeit both of them weakened by injury, the other is a match of teams trying to rebuild, one buoyed by a good win and the other becoming desperate after a record-equalling string of loses. Australia's win last week was unexpected, can England repeat that unlikely victory to upset the current world number one Springboks and also reverse their recent dismal record?

Ireland v Argentina

Despite what the (Irish) commentators would have you believe, this was not a good Irish performance that answered the questions hanging over them. It was, undeniably, a better Irish performance and there were moments when they looked pretty good.

However, they leaked penalties and cards, and blew try scoring chances. One was pretty tough, arguably a good tackle as Beirne tried to ground the ball, two others were just lazy Irish play, trucking the ball aimlessly into the Argentinian defence until the inevitable turnover occurred. I didn’t see the final stats but two yellows, about 15 penalties and a host of bad turnovers, players looking at each as the ball bounced from kicks and so on, there were a lot of errors that Wales weren’t making last week but we saw from Ireland, again.

Argentina were not clicking on all cylinders and in their post mortem they might look at three penalties and a missed drop goal when they were a forward up and seemed to have the momentum. A lineout drive and a try or three would have changed the outcome. Both sides had injuries so it’s not fair to talk about that, but it felt that, in particular. the absence of Chocobarres in the midfield really cost them. When Argentina were making chances, and they did, they often stuttered or even stalled there. It’s credit to Los Pumas that they could keep going for long periods despite this, but a part of me can’t help but wonder what might have been.

The Irish fans might be happy but Farrell et al will be torn between relief and worry. In their bad games in the Rugby Championship, Argentina were soundly beaten, even by Australia. Ireland blew their chances thanks to solid defensive efforts, unlike most of the Welsh misses last week that were dropped balls that a confident side would have caught. Whilst they ought to have scored more it’s a mark of how out of sorts they were that they lucky to win by three. I think Contepomi will have more positives to take from this narrow defeat.

Scotland v Portugal

Scotland made a huge number of changes and, in essence, put out a B team for this challenge. There were a few old heads scattered around but a lot of the young players that Townsend blooded in the Americas this summer. By contrast, Portugal started four amateurs and six players in the ProD2. Now, the ProD2 is a very good league, but it is two steps away from test rugby, and that gulf showed.

Scotland, as you might expect from such an unfamiliar team, didn’t look smooth and connected. But, in fairness to the Portuguese, their defence in open play was solid for big chunks of the first half, as was their lineout defence (arguably that was lack of cohesion amongst the Scottish forwards). But when it came to power, the 160 kg advantage the Scottish pack told. The drills from kickoffs looked smoother and as Los Lobos fatigued the Scottish backs found space.

Even the Scottish crowd roared their approval as Portugal kept going to the corner and driving the maul, eventually scoring a try with the clock deep in the red at the end of the first half. Of course the five tries that Scotland had already scored meant that it was no threat but Portugal had shown enough flashes that their try felt like a suitable reward for their efforts. The second Portuguese try was met by more boos than cheers: Mannix pulled a Rassie and changed the whole front row on a scrum 5m from the Scottish line. They demolished their opponents, and the scrum half stole over the line. It’s worth remembering these are probably the eighth players on the Scottish depth chart, but it was still a big moment for the Portuguese pack.

As good as they were in defence, at least while fresh, the Portuguese backs were profligate in attack. I lost count of the offloads and passes to Scottish players, most weren’t really interceptions although there were a few of them too. Quite a few led to Scottish tries, directly or indirectly. When the backs did score it was lovely.

This is a match where both sets of coaches will be pretty happy with the result. There are things for them both to work on, absolutely, but they’ll both have expected that; this match was more about players gaining experience on both sides than anything else. But there are multiple things both coaches can look at and say “we did this well” to their players.

England v South Africa

Although this game had its almost inevitable result, the referee with some typically Brace decisions, and in the first few minutes the way England played, meant it had some exciting moments.

Last week England seemed to throw caution to the wind when they were down by 10, break from their structures and suddenly score tries. This week they scored an early try by doing the same thing. South Africa added to the pressure on themselves with several bad kicks to touch. But South Africa settled down, England settled into their routines and gradually they squeezed the life out of England.

This was not the South Africa of the knockout stages of the World Cup, they missed their own lineout throws several times and were penalised multiple times on England’s throw too. They weren’t as clinical under the high ball or at the breakdown as we’re used to seeing either. But they’re used to winning, they understand how to win and how to play together.

I try not to pick on the referee, and I’m a very begrudging SA fan when they play England - I’d rather they both lose to be honest - but the referee and TMO stole a try from SA, and Brace had an outrageously short penalty advantage that stole an attempt at points from them too. For all that, SA still won by nine points. They were that much better than England when they were having a bad day.

Crisis at Twickenham? It sure looks like it. There’s a lot of hot air in Wales, but there are a lot of things happening off the pitch too. England have lost players to retirement and the like, sure, but this is not a team rebuilding in the same way as Australia and Wales but they look like they’re not making any progress, unlike both of them.

South Africa are settling in to their new attacking systems, at least with their main squad. It’s not entirely there yet, I think New Zealand have that more bedded in now. But you can see they have confidence in it as well as each other. And that, at the end of the 80 minutes, was the difference between the teams.

France v New Zealand

I could rhapsodise about this game for hours, months, possibly years. It was billed as the star game of the weekend and, unlike last weekend, it lived up to it. Ireland, and to some extent South Africa, who have, for different reasons I think, not matched up to the expectations of both their fans and the wider public. I think Ireland are in decline, South Africa are not being served by Rassie’s “change everyone” selection policies, and it’s making the new Tony Brown attacking strategy take longer to bed in than it should. The group we saw earlier largely have it, but they’re still thinking about it a bit too much instead of playing it. But doing it a bit ponderously was enough to smack down England by more than seven, and if the referee and TMO had done better, by 19+. Enough of them.

We had two teams here doing slightly different things but both, clearly, in some sort of transition.

France are refreshing players, partly due to sickness and injury and partly due to age. We would probably have seen some of these players if Galthié had his druthers, but other choices were rather forced on him. Most of them worked but it was easy to see why Villière is Galthié third choice right wing. If Ramos is injured both Barré and Buros have looked like perfectly competent replacements. Whilst Ramos is not a natural 10, outside Dupont he looks comfortable and competent. Dupont has le petit général role, Ramos can kick more than adequately from hand for touch and to kick pass, he can pass well and he’s got that full back attacking instinct to run. He’s definitely better with more time and space, but he can do the job in the 10 jersey. It probably helps that, in the modern game, 10’s frequently drop back to cover kicks, essentially a second fullback role, and France definitely used him like that.

New Zealand are in transition both with their coaching staff and with a chunk of their players, having lost a lot after the last World Cup. Really against Ireland was the first time we’ve seen them look comfortable for the whole game with Razor's plans, that carried on in this game.

The reason this game was so good to watch was that both teams went out and tried, on both sides of the ball. They didn’t look like sides afraid to lose, or afraid to play, they both believed that they could win, and they tried hard to do that. There were mistakes, sure, but away from the set pieces they looked like forced errors due to defensive pressure. In the first half, New Zealand were all over the French at scrum and lineout time, but in the second half, France fixed that - I think it was a function of their relative youth and lack of cohesion plus pressure, and while I’m not sure how they fixed it, they clearly sorted it out.

It was exhausting to watch. There was no let up, from either side. But it was also exhilarating as a neutral. I loosely support both these teams, and want them to win most of their matches. Except against Wales obviously. The pressure told on both teams but it didn’t look like it was the pressure of the occasion, more the pressure of the opposition defence.

France won by a point. I have no complaints about that while, at the same time, feeling they were lucky. New Zealand were strongly in attack and the ball went to ground. Ramos hacked it ahead, LBB out ran Reece (who had to turn, but LBB is stupidly fast) to score. It might not have been a 14 point swing but it certainly looked like it.

Italy v Georgia

This was a match that, ultimately, Borthwick will point at and say “this is why I use my tactics.” Not that Italy play with English tactics in any way shape of form, arguably the lesson should be the other way, but if you look at the traditional stats, Italy won this at a canter. It’s not until you look at the scoreboard and see there were only three points in it, and a scoring timeline that shows Italy were behind from the 23rd to the 63rd minute that you might appreciate something else was going on.

There’s a lot of conversation, year-after-year, about Georgia replacing Italy in the Six Nations. Victory here would have raised that again. Defeat may have stilled it for a while.

Georgia tackled their hearts out and, in the first half, scored two lovely tries. In the second half, Italy gradually wore them down and scored two tries of their own. Their kicking from the tee was poor, but just good enough to sneak the win.

It’s tempting, and romantic, to say that Georgia deserved to win this. I can see that and my heart agrees with that if I’m honest. But my head acknowledges that, when they were ahead, Italy controlled the game well, forced Georgia back and asked if they could score from 80 metres. The answer was no because, in the last 15 minutes, they were too tired to produce that magic that had put them so far ahead in the first half. It’s not romantic but it was smart rugby.

This was not a great match, I don’t think the better team won. But the more pragmatic team took just enough of their chances and then ground out the win. Sometimes that’s what it takes.

Wales v Australia

For most of this game Wales were pretty bad and Australia, riding high after their win last week, were pretty good. If you can score three tries when you’re down a player you know things are going your way!

Traditionally Wales have “done the simple things well” - they’re fit and they make their tackles, hit the breakdowns accurately and fast, execute their basic skills to a very high level. This was, for large parts of the game, absent yesterday. There was a stretch of about 10 minutes where Australia won every ruck, a penalty if Wales carried in, quick ball if they did. That was the Welsh being blown, too slow to get there and support their ball carrier so giving away easy penalties.

Wales were not completely abject, their starting front row was good - they dominated in the scrum and were making good lineout wins and some steals - but there were a lot of areas where they were not up to speed, and those areas got more numerous as the replacements came on. However, the willingness to fight back after conceding three tries in the first 20 minutes and go into the break only down 19-13, and to keep trying and score a try late, even when all was lost were also good - and an improvement from last week.

Wales have a really young side. That’s not on Gatland, it’s on the WRU. Immediately after the match I was in the “sack him now” camp, really for the first time. On reflection, he has corrected some of the issues from last week. While a rampant Australia exposed more areas that need work, some of that is due to the youth throughout the side. A different coach won’t suddenly have access to different players, and these players are responding to Gatland. While it’s no fun at all, maybe he should stay because there’s not an obvious alternative out there who could do better.

Happy Coaches

1. Schmidt. Whilst this wasn’t a complete performance, and Wales were poor for big chunks of the game, this was Australia playing well and executing his plans in smart ways. What’s not to like? Sterner tests await.
2. Galthié. It was close, and there is a lot for the youngsters to learn, but they improved during the game and took the win. What’s not to like?
3. Robinson. Although the All Blacks lost, they performed for the full game and they went out and played to his plan. It worked well against a team many expected to win the World Cup last year, playing at home. While it was a loss, the AB are clearly now at the point of tinkering to get it perfect. They have three years to go before the next World Cup.
4. Erasmus. A nine point win at Twickenham is nothing to be sneezed at. But the Springboks looked flat and didn’t really fire. There may be reasons that he’s happy with but from the outside it’s a bit worrying.
5. Mannix. Yes Portugal lost, three tries to nine, but only SA have scored more than three at Murrayfield this year (so far), and there was a fourth try that was, correctly but sadly, chalked off. There’s a lot of positives for him in this performance.
6. Townsend. Splitting Mannix, Townsend and Contepomi was hard but this was the order I ended with. Nine tries is great. The lineout woes might be forgivable. Giving up three tries and almost four just nudges him into second place on this mini-list for me.
7. Contepomi. Argentina are meant to loose, pretty heavily, against Ireland at home. They will feel initially disappointed to have lost at all. While there are areas to work on, there are a lot of positives here. Just under Townsend because of that regret of missing out on the draw/win that was there to be taken.
8. Quesada. Italy have an injury list to cry over and a to do list that will challenge the memory of any phone. However, they got into the lead and took control of the game. They did the last 15 minutes well and they’re probably the most important minutes.
9. Cockerill. Yes, Georgia lost. They ran out of steam a bit, and Italy ground them down. But Georgia definitely did enough to make people think and played the more attractive rugby until they got too tired. There were a lot of positives to take away.
10. Farrell. A bad win is still a win, right? But this win wasn’t convincing enough to paper over the cracks in this team. A tiny bit of luck is all that separated them on the night, and even when Ireland had the momentum they looked like a decent side, rather than potential number one in the world material.
11. Borthwick. England’s attack is lacklustre. In successive weeks the AB, the Wallabies and the Bokke have fairly easily run around the defence that is meant to be the basis of winning a World Cup, and just tackled the ball carrier and run back the kicks. His plans are not working. Neither he nor his players seem to realise it. (Perhaps I should put him at number one, he’s clearly delusional.)
12. Gatland. I debated putting Gatland above Borthwick - Wales responded to his coaching after the loss to Fiji and kept fighting back - but the size of the loss and the terrible moments were too many. Wales will improve, have improved in fact, but it’s taking a long time. He might not be there to see it through.

Next Week

Friday

• France v Argentina. Argentina have this one on, one off pattern, and are maybe due to be on? But France looked very good. I expect them to win.

Saturday

• Ireland v Fiji. While I hope Fiji will win, and it’s possible, I expect Ireland to win but I don’t think it will look convincing.
• Wales v South Africa. I want a performance from Wales, I can’t see a win.
• Italy v New Zealand. I can’t see Italy winning this, really whoever Razor picks.

Sunday

• Scotland v Australia. This looks like the match of the weekend. Both sides are pretty confident, Scotland looked good against South Africa and brushed Portugal aside. Australia, unexpectedly, beat England and swept Wales aside. I expect Scotland to win, but who can be sure.
• England v Japan. I always want England to lose, and with Fast Eddie in charge of Japan, I want him to be humiliated. I don’t care about this match. The way Japan are trying to play exploits the weaknesses in England’s defensive “strategy” such as it is, so I can see a way for Japan to make the RFU sack Borthwick.

Apologies this is so late, life happened.