Autumn Internationals 2024, Week 1.

There were only two matches this weekend, as most northern hemisphere countries were gathering players into training camps still. England used one of their agreed training weekends to pull their squad from the premiership a week early, and faced the All Blacks, Scotland used their home-based players (so were basically Glasgow) against Fiji, who were also missing their overseas players and were basically the Drua.

England v New Zealand

This was an odd, but compelling game, in part because of the way it played out. In the end there were two points between the sides, with England pulling out an eight point lead with about 20 to go, but New Zealand scoring the last ten points to win.

The All Blacks scored three tries and butchered four more, England only scored one - that from an interception - and didn’t really ever look like scoring any more. Even when they had a 5m scrum in the last minute it didn’t feel like they were going to score. As it was, the AB scrum shunted the English pack backwards, the pass back to Ford was slow and high, Roigard was in his face and the attempted drop goal went just wide. Games of rugby are not really won and lost on individual moments but even if you focus on just that one, everyone from 1-10 (ok, several were replacements, but those positions) has plenty of blame for not doing their job.

England have a decent, but not world-class defence - being opened up to the point that the All Blacks should have scored seven tries is not good enough - but their attack is still lacklustre. Now, you can win knockout matches, the last three, four in future, rounds at the RWC on the back of a brilliant defence and a brilliant level of discipline. England has time to improve their defence and for about 60 minutes appeared to have that brilliant discipline. I think with a different referee the whistle might have been blown somewhat differently and a bit more against England, less against New Zealand, but by the end of the game it was close and, I think irrefutably, cost England their lead.

England are still very much a work in progress and it will be interesting to see how they do over the next few weeks. Their victory over Ireland is looking more and more likely a reflection on Ireland than a positive for them. Borthwick's plans are appearing to shackle Smith's creative talents at 10, Bath and Exeter (for all they’re at opposite ends of the table) use Lawrence and Slade as attacking threats as well. They looked as potent, at least in attack, as a bowl of wet noodles. This isn’t new and isn’t improving. I don’t think it’s the players - they create chances and score tries for their clubs - it could be the combinations but I am pretty sure it’s the plan.

New Zealand were not perfect either. Ioane cost them one try for certain, one more chance, by taking the ball into contact rather than passing. The pass from Sititi to Vai'i was poor, Feyi-Waboso made it harder than it could have been, but why is a lock the closest, and only, player in support? The pass that Smith intercepted came about because there was a collision between the 9 and a prop, that slowed everything down and let Smith get a jump on the pass. That should be an easy fix. Even the Aussies watching that I know felt that Gus was looking for tackling the player without the ball penalties to award against New Zealand and several were not justified. Nevertheless I’m sure we’ll see minor tweaks there next week.

Except for the penalty for a deliberate knock on, Clarke and Tele’a were good on both sides of the ball. They defended the cross-field kicks and the runs well, as well as carrying the ball dangerously. Jordan looked solid at the back, his best game at 15 in black this year. That might reflect the softness of the English attack. But this looks like a good back three for the All Blacks at last.

England’s subs were, arguably, the change of the game. The scrum went from not totally dominant but on top to being pushed around and leaking penalties in an embarrassing way. Meanwhile Razor, who has rightly been criticised for his substitution game, seemed to get it spot on this time. Each one arrived, whether individually or in little clusters, and didn’t disrupt the All Blacks flow, which they have all year, and they were largely a positive addition. ALB, who is generally class, picked up a yellow card, and is the only one I’d say didn’t add. For the first time in a while DMac didn’t look lost at 10. I think the English defence was too busy lining up big hits on the other ball carriers to put pressure on the playmaker. It will be interesting to see how Razor does going forward over the remaining games. The All Blacks still have things to work on, but it feels like refining and tinkering to get the parts to purr, maybe change Ioane for Proctor, but a final polish rather than England who are still searching for executing their plan.

Scotland v Fiji

This was a complete contrast to the earlier game. It really splits into three parts.

For the first 20 minutes Scotland were amazing, and scored four tries without letting Fiji touch the ball. For the next 40 minutes, Fiji scored three tries and looked like their fun self. Then for the final 20 Scotland took control once again.

Fiji looked like the Drua, which is fair, they were - their star internationals were still playing for their clubs in France, while Scotland looked like Scotland A, which is probably also fair. Fiji without their overseas stars are missing that X-factor and while Scotland without their stars are more limited, everyone is an experienced test player.

There’s less to say about this, Scotland ran in eight tries to three, and looked good for the win. I can’t help thinking the game would have been much better without that first 20 minutes.

I think both coaches will look at the positives from the 40 minutes when they were on top, and the rather different teams for their next games, and shrug and move on.

Looking Ahead

Friday

• Ireland v New Zealand. This is probably the match of the weekend. What will the new Ireland look like? Are they declining? How will the injuries to some key players (Taylor and Beaudy are out with HIA protocols) affect the All Blacks?

Saturday

• England v Australia. Two teams at somewhat different points in their rebuild but, although the smart money is on England there are still questions. Can the Lily White Boys create chances against an appreciably worse defence? The Wallabies loose forwards are good and shutting down a poor attack is well within their capacity. The Wallabies were not good against the Bokke but can they perform against the English? I expect England to win but I can see the Wallabies sneaking it on a good day.
• Italy v Argentina. Argentina normally take a game or two to get together, but they’ve recently played in TRC. Italy are on an upwards trajectory. I think Argentina should win, but Italy at home are not a pushover and if Argentina don’t click, they could win.
• France v Japan. Galthié could surprise the world and pick France B and throw this match. However, I expect him to use it as a warmup for his senior team in preparation for the next match, against the All Blacks. The French A team that tours there in July beats Japan, a full team at home, against what is a fairly young Japan team is not going to be a contest.

Sunday

• Wales v Fiji. This is hard to call in advance. If Wales pick their most experienced side and players in position, Fiji repeat the Drua only team, Wales should win. If Gatland experiments again and Fiji pick the side that won the PNC, Wales can easily lose.
• Scotland v South Africa. South Africa have a relatively easy tour this autumn: Scotland, England and Wales. They have recently won the Rugby Championship, and although their players have been back to the URC and wherever, they have that team coherence in recent memory. Rassie might pick a young team for Scotland, like he did for Argentina away, otherwise this is an easy win for the Bokke.