TRC Rounds 4 and 6, WRWC Final

TRC New Zealand v Australia This was a game with a lot on the line. New Zealand have a crazy record of victories at Eden Park, and although it’s not quite as long, a formidable grasp on the Bledisloe Cup as well. However, both teams have been up and down this year and there’s little doubt that the Wallabies at their best are more than capable of beating this year’s AB at their worst. Will those records crumble?

This was a game best described as swingy. For the first 20+ minutes the AB barely made a mistake, and the Wallabies hardly touched the ball. The next ten minutes were a bit more back and forth, and in the last ten minutes the Wallabies took the game to the Kiwis. The penalties flowed against the defending team, probably 5:1, maybe more. There was definitely stuff missed for both sides, but it was pretty even handed. That continued into the second half.

At the break it was 20-17 to the men in black, and given that the Wallabies have had the best second half, by far, of any of the teams in TRC, the AB the worst, the Fortress Eden Park record looked shaky.

It was not to be, however. The All Blacks coolly took the points on offer a couple of times to stretch the lead, and O’Connor, normally the epitome of professionalism, kicked from hand terribly on three occassions, missing touch from penalties twice and out on the full from a restart. Certainly two chances to be deep in NZ territory and hopefully on attack gone begging. Out on the full meant a likely Aussie lineout near halfway was a Kiwi scrum on halfway instead.

The game was sealed when, following extended pressure, Potter wasn’t so magic and was, rightly, shown yellow and the AB promptly scored lovely try.

There are definitely Wallabies supporters out there bemoaning the refereeing. Asking how do you adapt when it was so inconsistent? But it wasn’t that inconsistent - you get the ball, you get on attack, and the penalty count against you falls, unless it’s dangerous play. In defence you need to be super precise. There were runs when the Wallabies were on attack, and there were long strings of penalties against the AB. However, the Wallabies didn’t protect the ball, the AB did, and the penalty count was one-sided because of it. Add a lot of poor kicking, not just the cases I’ve mentioned above, and a number of repeated, stupid offences, like two no-arms tackles from the captain that he tried to argue about - both were correct whatever he thought and early - and the scene was set that the Wallabies were playing dirty. It later cost them some benefit of the doubt.

Fortress Eden Park survives another year, the AB, at least temporarily, back on top of the table.

WRWC New Zealand v France

This was a game that, sadly, lived up to my expectations a little. France had raised their game in response to their suspensions and really taken it to England last week, then fallen a little short. Lifting themselves again was a game too far. By contrast, New Zealand had failed to deliver last week by their own standards - a lot of that was just Canada blew them off the park rather than them playing badly, but they still didn’t look good - and they needed to show they still had it.

You could see both teams playing their games, but the Black Ferns had a defensive system that had been tweaked to shut down the French. For large parts of the game they were successful on both sides of the ball, absorbing French pressure until they made a mistake then pouncing and transitioning into attack. In the first half this was pretty devastating, and they ran in four tries, Les Bleues responding with one late. In the second half, as fatigue set in the French had more success, scoring three tries to two in the second half.

I’m broadly supportive of both of these teams. I marginally favour France because of my friend, but I’d support either of them against most teams except Wales and maybe this current Canadian side. I wouldn’t have minded this being closer but, on the day, the better team won, and although the Kiwis did that by restricting the French attack, both sides went out and attacked and defended and it was a fun game.

WRWC England v Canada

I was hoping for a Canadian victory here.

In contrast to the previous match, England went out with very little intention of playing attacking rugby. I’m sure they’re happy that Kildunne produced a moment of magic and a lovely try, but that wasn’t the plan, that was just her being one of the best in the world.

I’ve commented in these reviews that the South African women reminded me of their men from a decade or so ago, this performance from the English women reminded me of the English men from the Rob Andrew era - 10 man rugby at its worst!

They went out with plans to borderline legally spoil the Canadian playing style, get into the rucks and spoil everything, prevent offloads however they could and generally be nuisances. They did that, and more or less shut Canada down. They didn’t really try to create anything themselves. They just relied on getting enough penalties to get into positions to grab a lineout and drive over in a maul. In fairness to them it worked, but fuck me, it was boring.

I said in the previous match review that the Black Ferns had a defensive strategy to stop the French, but the difference here was that the Kiwis were playing inside the laws and spirit of the game. They were tackling hard, looking for spilt ball of loose offloads and then pouncing, or cleanly attacking rucks and making turnovers. They weren’t angels, there were penalties conceded of course, but it was eight by NZ and nine by France, it was far from a dirty game. England conceded 12 to Canada's four and, IMO, were lucky not to concede more. They played to the edge of the laws to stop their opponents playing. On the flip side, the Kiwis played an attractive attacking game, the Red Roses essentially never passed the ball.

The Canadians will be disappointed, England are celebrating but I’m mourning. Hopefully this doesn’t set the template for how to play for the next cycle.

TRC South Africa v Argentina

I had the best intentions of watching this, but by the time I had the chance, I’d heard too much about it to summon the energy.

Essentially the Pumas were very close until half time, then the Bokke roared away. Some of that seems to be that Argentina can play with anyone for a while, but not necessarily 80 minutes, some that a lot of teams can play with the South Africans for a while, but they have great coaches and a the ability to execute a few game plans - they may only be subtly different, but they are - and if you can live with one, you can’t live with the second.

Also of note, a brain fart by Kolbe where he tapped a restart, Choccobares pounced and scored an unlikely try.

TRC Week Six

Although it’s a bit more complicated, essentially if New Zealand win and Argentina win, then NZ are the champions, otherwise it’s SA, except in some weird combinations.

Australia v New Zealand

This match started looking like Australia had learnt some lessons: they were taking the points on offer and playing pretty well. And of all the loose forwards, McReight seemed to be the only one that adjusted to what the ref was asking for in terms of the jackal, and he was awarded with several penalties at the breakdown. I don’t think the Kiwis got any, at least not for jackalling.

The stats suggest that the penalty count was equal, and high, 14 each, but it didn’t feel like that somehow. I think because the All Blacks had a slightly high scatter of what felt like normal penalties - a few at the scrum, a couple of tackles that slipped high, a couple of offsides, a few in at the side at the breakdown, a couple of holding on and so on. It felt like the normal sort of run of play events. Australia gave up two cards for dangerous play - a croc roll and a head-on-head tackle - the first of which scrubbed off a try. They also had two more penalties for croc rolls that blew up their own possession. They gave up a try, from the restart the chasers were offside, in front of the clearing kick, and they gave up another try. It was stupid and self-destructive. Not all of them, but enough that it made it feel like the Wallabies had given up twice as many penalties as the All Blacks.

The All Blacks made a load of changes, some forced through injury, others through choice. Of these, Tupaea, in the 13 jersey, was most clearly a roaring success. They’ve been complaining that Proctor is “too quiet” but Tupaea scored a brace of tries and was visible in a number of positive moments at other times. Lakai didn’t impress me as much as Sititi does, but they’re building a bit of depth and he didn’t do anything wrong either. Both Carter and Parker continue to impress. Fainga'anuku is returning after playing in France rather than really new, but looks the part, Bower and Tosi are likewise not new and didn’t have to do much of their main job, but looked good for the last 15 minutes. This was an All Blacks team adjusting to massive changes and playing in increasingly wet conditions.

They had a plan to play “down there and apply pressure” and if DMac had had his kicking boots on the points difference would have been a lot bigger. I think he missed three conversions, two were gimmes even in the rain, and three penalties, one of which was right at the edge of his range but the other two he should have got. It will look like 15 missed points, it’s probably more like 10. And 38-14 would have felt like a fair result to be honest. But a bonus point win is everything NZ needed.

Despite a promising start, and a bit of a fight back to get close, the Wallabies didn’t really show a plan. I’m sure they had one. But they kept hitting self-destruct and never had a chance to implement it.

Argentina v South Africa

Although notionally a home game for Argentina, this was played in London for some reason. Money is the likeliest reason but there’s no official explanation.

Having said about last week's match that Argentina can’t perform for a full 80 minutes, this match belied that. It was really a game in three parts. For the first half an hour and the last ten minutes Los Pumas were on top. For the middle 40 minutes, South Africa were. At least as far as the scoreboard was concerned.

In game terms, the Bokke scrum bullied, but didn’t totally dominate the Argentinian scrum. I think all the penalties went one way, but they also managed to get the ball out often. The lineouts were likewise bullied by the Bokke, but Los Pumas scored off a lineout move, so it completely one sided.

Really the game was pretty much as even as the time in control of the scoreboard suggests. It ended up 24-22, and Argentina missed a penalty kick. Both sides missed a few kicks in fairness, but like always those kicks late in the game seem to have more significance.

Congratulations to South Africa on winning what might well be the last Rugby Championship.

Summing Up

Women’s RWC

Really, on every front, the WRWC was a roaring success. Public awareness of women’s rugby, certainly here, but I think everywhere rugby is played, has been exploded out of the water. Whilst some of the comparisons to NZ are unfair - the world was coming out of Covid and travel was complicated - but we went from three pools of four to four pools of four, with the inevitable increase in games played. Yes, this led to some crazy mismatches, but rugby is a game where being just a bit better all round can lead to big scores, and we’ve have some fully professional teams up against genuinely amateur teams. The same is essentially true in the men's version and there are bigger blow outs there, every time. This championship threw up a lot of compelling matches too.

We always hope to see the game grow on the back of the men's World Cup. It’s been slow, glacial even, but we are seeing improvements in tier two countries. Women’s rugby has some advantages. The history is shorter and the entrenched dominance, and tradition, of the tier one nations just isn’t there. They definitely have advantages when it comes to picking up speed, but competitions like WXV are giving all the nations good, competitive matches every year with chances to engage and improve in meaningful games around the world as well as regional tournaments. Brazil may have been here for the party this time, but they want to come back and win a match next year. Fiji improved like that from last year, and will have ambitions to kick on and qualify for the quarterfinals next time.

TRC

To be honest none of the teams have looked completely convincing. They have all had some good performances and some bad ones.

SA lost to Australia in SA and gave up a winning streak in Eden Park that goes back to the 50’s. They looked bad when doing so. They had one great half in two matches against NZ, tying that series, but leaving Fortress Eden Park intact, and one good half against Argentina, just scraping two wins. Their old players largely look old, rather than experienced, and their younger players don’t quite gel.

NZ are apparently appalling, a disaster and clueless, but are going to end second in TRC and on the WR rankings. They had one bad performance against Argentina, but so has everyone in recent years, and a bad half against SA. That’s it. Razor has finally dropped Reiko, he has options in the back three, he’s exploring options in the midfield, Reihana seems to be developing into a young competitor for Barrett and McKenzie in the 10 jersey, give him another good year and he’ll be a good option. There is, at last, a good back row developing again, with some choices. This year has really been about slotting new pieces into the existing lineup and developing them into the system, so there will be a squad used to playing together and playing the Razor system in time for Australia. It’s not quite perfect, but it’s getting there.

Australia are in a weird position. They’ve had some good results, beating SA and the Lions, and some terrible ones, like yesterday. I think they’ve started to believe, but their confidence is a thin veneer. The ABs put them under pressure in a way no one else quite managed, and perhaps that’s specific demons of the All Blacks and getting the record of the worst losing streak - 11 in a row - and so forth, whereas against the Bokke in Eden Park there were no expectations, no pressure, so maybe it was easier to perform? But there are steps forward from the end of the Jones era, but they’re not quite as solid as they looked, even a week ago.

Argentina are looking better, especially are a close loss to SA and ending up in sixth on the WR ladder, above Australia. Remember there are six pools in MRWC 2027, so the top six teams get number one seedings. We know they have the ability to take the game to anyone, they often, but not always, struggle in delivering for a full 80, but they have time to work on that.