Men's Six Nations, 2023, Week Five

So, the final round of games and we have to see if Scotland have strength in depth, if Wales have improved over the championship in a really tough test and whether France or Ireland will win the title this year.

Scotland v Italy

This was world number 5 against the world number 14. On paper, it’s no contest. But Scotland were missing their first choices locks, both of them, and their first choice 10 and 15. That’s a lot of experience and playmaking to be missing.

Despite that, Scotland ran out what the scoreboard will tell you is comfortable winners. A 26-14 bonus point win is comfortable, right? Yes, except Scotland nicked the ball with the clock in the red and Italy about 3m from their try line, then ran the length of the pitch to stretch it out to a 12-point margin of victory and score the fourth try. If that hadn’t happened, if Italy had scored instead as they were threatening to do, this would be a very different write up.

As a neutral I’m not sure that Italy winning would have felt like a fair reflection of the match, but Scotland scoring like that didn’t either.

Scotland applied pressure, Italy defended for days. Italy broke from defence and all to often couldn’t quite control it. But when they did, they were glorious. This was a team that learnt the lessons from last week. They stayed calm, they trusted their systems, even when passes didn’t go to hand and the like.

It’s easy, and at least partially true, to say that Italy missed Capuozzo. They needed him both for what he does when he runs, ball in hand, but when he’s a dummy runner and attracts the attention of several defenders, making space for others. But Italy also need at least two forwards to step up and become real threats with the ball. Negri is great, but who else does the job? In the following game, looking at Wales (because France is blessed with an over abundance of great ball carriers), Faletau is the equivalent to Negri in terms of carrying the ball (they play in different positions and have other roles in other ways, but they’re both big back row ball carriers and reliable bend the defensive line). But both Welsh locks and always at least one prop were carrying too. Maybe not for big metres, but reliably forwards. Owens usually does that too, but not today (that’s a reflection of how good the French defensive line was I think, or maybe a slight injury, he came off quite early). Italy need some of that to start winning reliably. They’re young, I think it will come but it was a glaring absence.

France v Wales

Before this match there were really three questions:

1. How far off that high we saw against England would the French be?
2. Would the French secure a bonus point victory to maximise the pressure on the Irish?
3. How would Wales perform after the morale boost of their first win of Gatland-2.0?

Even though France comfortably racked up their bonus point victory, and one to spare, plus a lot of points from penalties, racking up 41 points in total, more than Gatland will have liked, Wales scored four tries and 28 points of their own. While, like Scotland, Wales scored of the last play this felt more like it evened up the score to reflect the balance of play than in the previous game. Edwards won’t agree, and apparently nearly killed someone as he slammed his laptop shut in disgust and it shot off the desk into the person in front of him!

With the exception of one try, that they built, France counterattacked from turnovers and kicks. They did so brilliantly and efficiently. They almost always took points, be that a flair-filled try or a more pragmatic three points. Once they committed, they rarely missed. But from the kicking duels, the turnovers deep in French territory where there was nothing on, Wales defended well and kicked back well - it was very much honours even on that front. The Welsh lineout also worked well, that’s a definite plus point.

France were not as imperious as last week. That’s not surprising. But that’s less that they made mistakes - both sides had single digit penalties conceded and only two turnovers - more that Wales shut them down far better than England had. Wales might have conceded more points than I’d have liked, but compared to their performance against Ireland six weeks ago, this is chalk and cheese. Even compared to last week, this is a big step up. Gatland's systems are there, they’re working and the players are believing in them. There is further to go, absolutely, but getting out of the pool in France seems likely now, and it didn’t back at the start of February.

All that said, France looked really dangerous.they’ve been the most fun side to watch all championship and they finished it off in style.

Ireland v England

Really there were only two questions in this match. Would Ireland choke and would England bounce back?

It’s going to sound crazy saying that 29-16 means the answer to both is yes. But it was 10-6 at half-time and Ireland were pretty lucky to be ahead. Just on the stroke of halftime, Steward was shown a red card - it was undoubtedly the correct decision by the framework but it felt rough looking at it - and eventually that let Ireland stretch out as fatigue and space made itself known.

Ireland did what they had to do, but you can’t help thinking that France or Scotland would have won this far more comfortably, the Welsh side of this week would have won, potentially even Italy would have won against a 14-man England for half the game.

This was nervy, poor rugby. The best thing we can say is that England bounced back. I’m not sure their tactic of putting two or three extra bodies into every ruck is sustainable. But while England had 15 men on the pitch it sure threw the Irish fast ruck game out of joint.

Overall

Congratulations to Ireland for their Grand Slam, the first they’ve completed in Dublin.

Happy Coaches

For, I think the first time ever, I’m going to put them all level. All three winning coaches have “yes, but…” questions and those that lost have “shame, but…” positives to take. I struggled to separate them (once I tried to take my Welsh bias away), so I’ve lumped them all together. In order of how their teams finished, here we go:

1. Farrell. Happy to have won, finished first and won a grand slam. However, both Scotland and England basically stuffed the Irish fast rucks for a half, as did the French. Arguably the French had the help of the Irish taking their foot of the pedal, but the other sides did it in the first half. Equally arguably, Ireland choked. That’s all quite worrying for the knockout rounds come October.
2. Galthié. France have been good on attack and that continued today. But Wales have been awful on attack and France have been, except against Ireland, super stingy on defence. And then Wales run in four tries… that’s not good.
3. Townsend. Yes, Scotland won, but two interceptions in the last five minutes were required for that. That’s not great.
4. Borthwick. Yes a loss, to the world number one at home, but until Steward was sent off, and actually well into the second half, England were close and certainly well in this match.
5. Gatland. Yes, a loss, to the world number two side at home, but the kicking duel worked out even, the Welsh lineout worked, the defensive system certainly restricted the French more than the English did the week before and, perhaps more importantly, the attacking system clicked and Wales scored four tries against the Edwards defence.
6. Crowley. Last week, Italy thought they should have won and panicked. This week, Italy trusted to the system. Their players may not have had what it took, quite, but they pushed Scotland right to the edge.

Retrospective, and Looking Ahead

I always watch the Six Nations, it’s part of my cycle of the year, as much of a marker of Spring as snowdrops, daffodils and putting the clocks forward. It’s in my blood, and I love it unquestioningly. But this year, for most of the rounds, I’ve been thrilled and entertained by it too. There have been some great contests, some beautiful rugby, subplots like the way Wales have improved under Gatland, the way Italy have become genuine contenders except in the match when they could have realistically won it, then they forgot it all. There were matches where you could sit back and watch champagne rugby and while the French demolition of England at Twickenham instantly springs to mind, most of the games involving the French, Irish, Italians or Scots were really fun to watch, with attractive rugby being played for large parts of the game. That despite this year being really cold for large parts of the championship!

Looking ahead, Ireland and France seem to be in a good place. I have some doubts about Ireland, teams seem to have worked out ways to slow their attack - Scotland and England chose different methods and they both worked for a while - and they’re also rather dependent on Sexton staying fit. France seem to have strength in depth in most positions, and while there’s a step down from Dupont to Lucu, it’s not as big as Sexton to whoever is next… France also seem to have spent most of this championship trying out things to give them a plan B, C and D. They pulled plan A out a couple of times, but they have alternatives tucked away and the team know how to run them in competitive situations. You’ve got to think that will stand them in good stead in the knockout stages come October.

Scotland are in an interesting position. They’re currently world number 5, so they theoretically could challenge to win a quarter-final. However, they’re in a pool with South Africa and Ireland. They really need to beat one of those to progress… South Africa have to be seen as the one to target but it seems like a hard ask. That would get them a QF against the winner of Pool A: New Zealand or France. That’s really tough.

England are trying to move on from what happened against France and say that they need to build from what happened in Dublin as the new minimum standard. Can they do that? Their group contains Japan and Argentina. Japan always over-perform at RWC because their side has a long training period (it was something like 6 months before the last one) and, on their day Argentina can beat anyone. I don’t know that England have the consistency yet, the identity to be assured of getting out of their pool, words I didn’t expect to be writing a year ago.

While Italy have improved, they have a group with New Zealand and France. They can beat anyone - Australia, South Africa and others attest to that. But at a RWC? Sorry.

Wales are in a group that has got interesting after the Autumn Internationals. Australia, Fiji and Georgia - arguably the test that got Pivac sacked. If Wales had five or six more games, I would say yes, a group win is feasible. Australia are in disarray, and Wales under Gatland would not have lost to Georgia, probably not have lost to Australia. Australia under Jones is an unknown beast, but he’s threatening to both shake up the side with league converts and have a walkout of his existing players because he keeps talking about it. So who knows where they’ll be? I don’t know how Wales will do, but this year I think there are three pools where the soubriquet “pool of death” could really apply. I don’t know what order France and New Zealand will finish in, but I’d be stunned if they don’t both emerge from Pool A. In Pool B, it’s two from SA, Ireland and Scotland. Most likely to be the first two, but Scotland could beat one of them on the day. In Pool C, Portugal will be the whipping boys. Any two of the other four could emerge. In Pool D any of England, Argentina and Japan could emerge. I think the first two, in some order, are the most likely, but who knows. With Moana Pasifika playing SR this year, it’s just possible Samoa could be in the mix too.

Congratulations to Ireland.

Can’t wait to see what the Southern Hemisphere sides do in the Rugby Championship and then five months and three weeks for the start of the Men’s Rugby World Cup.