Men's Six Nations 2023 Week 4

Match Thoughts

A weekend with so many promising looking matches in advance. How would it actually play out?

Italy v Wales

While this match was for the wooden spoon, we had Wales looking for revenge after last year, looking for signs that their new plans were working and looking for their first win of the second Gatland era. On the other side we had an Italian side who were the favourites, deservedly so, for the first time ever in a 6N match, and having pushed both the Irish and French - that’s the top two sides in the world rankings remember - really close and looking to continue their progress.

As a Welsh fan what happened was a great result. This is not the final, polished, article. But, in most aspects of the game, Wales have clearly progressed. Their defence, which has been getting better throughout the tournament, took another step up and really harried the Italians. When it broke, it scrambled back and resisted well if there was space. Not a huge tick, but a step forward still, on a decent, and steadily improving, foundation. In attack, there is still work to do, absolutely, but Wales have started to not only create territorial pressure but convert that into tries. There is work to do, but the midfield is starting to understand their role in the plan and how to play together now they’ve had some game time, the off-field chaos in Welsh rugby has calmed down somewhat and they can focus properly. There is work to do, a lot of work to do, but there are clear signs of a plan, of players believing in the plan and starting to gel together. There is also a win to celebrate.

For Italy though, this match is one to forget. Some of that was the Welsh defence, which shut down their main attacking options well and forced them to play in ways they didn’t want to. Part of that was the absence of Capuozzo, who would have added both an extra personal threat and a distraction to the defence. But a bigger part was just that they didn’t click. Too many simple things didn’t work, easy passes dropped, easy tackles missed and the like. Ironically, when they tried the harder stuff they seemed to focus and it worked for them.

There was ten, maybe twenty minutes in the beginning of the second half when Italy looked threatening. But for the rest of the game, Wales were in control. Even as a Welsh fan, I wanted this to be closer. I’m happy with the win, but I wanted a game.

It should be noted there’s an alternate universe where the ball that led to Dyer’s try bounced the other way, Brex wasn’t tackled to drop the ball over the line, five tacklers didn’t drop off Williams. Wales' confidence didn’t grow, Italy’s didn’t collapse and there’s a different outcome. But in this universe, those things happened, and Wales are celebrating.

England v France

In some ways, the story of this match is very similar to the earlier one. The visitors came in and dominated. If you look at ten minute blocks, France clearly won seven of those to England’s one, the 59-10 score line - England's worst defeat at Twickenham and third worst ever - reflects that.

There are two differences though. At the end of my write-up for the Welsh victory I outlined an AU where Italy won. Obviously you can write an AU where the referee flashes a RC and the game changes dramatically, but there were no YCs in this game and I don’t think there should have been. There just weren’t any moments where you can really point and say “Oh, France were lucky there, and that set them up.” There was one odd try, but we have seen the like before and France were already totally in control so it wasn’t pivotal.

Yes, there are tries that France scored that will make you stop, rewind and add them to your ever-growing file of awesome shit Dupont, Penaud, Fickou, Ramos and Flament do. You should dust off the Danty file for his work at the breakdown too. France were great but, while the specific details might add up to something unique, none of the elements did. For example, have we seen Dupont take a box kick and someone else chase it, leading directly to a try because the defensive line is disorganised before? Yes. Many times. Add one to the tally. Have we seen someone make a break, kick the ball forwards and Dupont be the lead chaser? Add another one to that tally. And so on. France scored a lot of scrapbook worthy tries, absolutely. Everything they tried led to territory, tries and positive outcomes. On just about any other day that won’t be the case and you won’t get such a big scoreline. But none of the individual tries were actually lucky and out of the norm for how France have played in the last 2-3 years.

France were not perfect but they were really good. Equally, from the first minute to the last, with the exception of a few minutes after halftime, France dominated every breakdown, every pass, every tackle. While it’s not quite true to say they dominated every scrum, every lineout and every kicking duel, it felt like they did, such was their dominance in every other aspect of the game, but the set piece was pretty close to parity. Emotionally though, for example, at the end of the first half, two French forwards each had more carry metres than the whole of the English pack. One was close to the whole English team total. That’s how dominant the French were.

I felt sorry for the Italians, but in this game schadenfreude was the main emotion, mixed with some sheer joy at watching the French just play well throughout.

England have many players who had bad-to-terrible games. A few of those are young, or it was an exception in a generally ok championship so far. The English pundits are saying “this is probably England’s best side” but there are a lot that have been cruising on their reputations and deserve to be dropped, just like Farrell was.

Scotland v Ireland

Before the game against France, Borthwick said something along the lines of “it will show us where we are.” While that didn’t turn out so well, the same could be said of this match for Scotland.

In the first half, Scotland stood up and were counted; it was intense, brutal and close. I’m not sure whether the 7-8 score line or the four injury substitutions reflect the first half more accurately. Perhaps it’s actually the combination of both.

Then came the second half. Ireland stepped it up and Scotland couldn’t quite match them. When JGP came on and the service from the base got faster the gap got even bigger as the Scottish defence got even more stressed.

As a neutral, it would have a fairer reflection of the game we saw if Scotland had scored one more try. If I were Irish, I’d be split between torn at missing out on the bonus point and relief at winning with the injury list. If I were Scottish, I’d be thinking that, unlike England, we can see what we have to do. It feels like an achievable list rather than “1. Rebuild entirely.”

What other sides will take out of this is how to stop Ireland. For 40 minutes Scotland managed that. Scotland have to work out how to do that for the full 80. But Ireland got battered - they lost both hookers for example - and showed great resilience to not only hold on but actually stretch Scotland more in the second half. The resilience to win and cope with all those challenges was impressive.

Happy Coaches

Galthié and Gatland. Honestly it’s really hard to separate these two. Galthié will be happy that France performed and that they smashed England in such a massive way. Gatland will be equally happy that Wales have finally responded and are clearly improving, that they’ve won. They might have different plans and they’re certainly at different points in their plans for this RWC, but they’re both seeing signs that their plans are on track.

Farrell. Although it was a win, Ireland have a huge injury list, which will be worrying, and Scotland showed how to blunt Ireland's attack for extended periods. The sides coming out of the pool stages in France in the autumn will be watching this game and breaking down how to defend against the Irish…

Crowley. Italy had a bad day. But they’re young, they’ll have those days, and he knows that, they know that, and they’ll come back from it. He won’t be happy it occurred today, but he won’t be that disappointed either.

Townsend. This was a close run thing with Crowley, and I nearly put them level. but Townsend can’t write this off as a young team having a bad day. Ireland were there for the taking, one point ahead and injury ravaged at half time, then 15 point victors at the final whistle. Not necessarily sad, just disappointed, lol.

Borthwick. Let’s be clear, losing to the world number two side, when you’ve got a new coach and you’re rebuilding, is not a disgrace. However, England weren’t beaten, they were thrashed left, right and centre. They just capitulated. This wasn’t a defeat to a better side or a bad game, this was a team being demolished, embarrassed. It was a terrible game if you’re an England fan or player. Borthwick has got to rebuild some confidence and think about tactics and personnel going forward since they’ve got issues there too. Picking Smith is great, but if never gets the ball, he might as well have picked me. I could hardly have done a worse job than Smith and I’d have been working for England to lose. Not because he was bad, he barely touched the ball! There’s so much to do, and next week’s challenge is notionally even bigger…

Predictions

Scotland v Italy

Who will show up? If the Scotland of their first half smoother the Italy of their first half, this will be a blowout for the home team. If it’s more the sides of their second halves, a blowout the other way seems more likely. Perhaps that clichéd game of two halves? I think Scotland are too good for Italy at the moment but this is, by far, the match I’m least confident about.

France v Wales

My heart always says Wales, everyone knows that. I’ll be happy if we keep France under 30, ideally 24, and score two tries to be honest. Both would be measurable improvements from our performance against Ireland, and the English performance against the French. France to win, but I don’t think it will be a blowout.

Ireland v England

England will be hurting, Ireland will want to stick the knife in. I don’t think we’ll see a huge blowout but I’m not sure it’s going to be much of a contest. Maybe a 30 point margin of victory? The only thing thing that gives England even a glimmer of a chance is the injury list but Irish strength in depth will be too good for them.