Men's Six Nations 2022, Round Three

The midpoint where we sort out those who still have a chance and those that don’t.

Scotland v France

This was an odd match. At no point were France actually behind but from about minutes 15 to 35 Scotland were moving the ball so fast that the French defence missed tackles or made the tackles all single rather than gang tackles from a set line. Shortly before half time it felt like Scotland were in the lead. Then France scored a try with some lovely offloads that will have the Scottish defence coach tearing his hair out to remind us of the actual score. In the second half, France just kept easing away. If Jaminet had had his kicking boots on, the score should have been somewhere in the 50’s, if not 60’s. In fairness, if you look at the kicks he did score it’s clear the wind is pretty unpredictable. There are two from almost the same place, one flies straight and straight through, one looks like he’s doing frisbee tricks as it curves and bends several times but still goes through…

France are now three from three and closing in on that grand slam. Scotland can still place well, but can’t win now without a miracle.

I can’t leave this without talking about the first and second French tries.

The first try, Dupont takes a long kick, inside his 22 and there’s nothing on - clearly the option is a kick to touch. But Scotland’s chasers are not in a solid line, so off he runs. Beats the lone man, beats two more, skins the winger on the outside until finally, inside the Scottish 22 he’s tackled but offloads. There’s scrambling cover from Scotland, but because he’s arced from pretty much the middle of the field out to near the side line, there are support runners, first Baille of all people, then just a queue of the faster forwards, who smash over. Firm contender for try of the year, until… a little later the second try. For this try France attack down their left wing. Nothing exception until the last five metres or so (I mean, it was good but not exceptional). In those last five metres though, the ball changes hands three times in a melée of tacklers trying to push the ball carrier into touch. At first glance it might look chaotic but actually it’s a great example of support play and offloading. As each player in sequence is being tackled there are players in good support positions to take offloads and give choices about where to offload as well. Finally Scotland ran out of defenders and the try came. It’s not constructed like an attack from first phase but it’s an attack where the players have to think and respond instantly to the situation. Impressive stuff and a glorious try. This is the kind of thing we see the All Blacks at their best score, and here it’s France building their skills to next year.

England v Wales

Talk about a game of two halves. In the first half neither side played with any continuity, control or flair. Some of that was thanks to the ref who had some idiosyncratic at best interpretations of breakdown law. But mostly they were just bitty and disjointed. England didn’t exactly prosper but took four of the kicks at goal they were offered. Wales didn’t get offered penalties in kickable positions and couldn’t complete their chances when they got behind England's defensive lines, which they did.

In the second half Wales gifted England a try from a malfunctioning lineout (the Welsh media are saying this is due to Itoje taking out Beard before he jumped which the ref and TMO missed - I missed it live but having watched it on replay you can see it but I’m not sure I’m blaming the ref for missing that call unlike so many others), then fired back into the game with two beautifully created tries. England stretched their lead with a penalty, Wales clawed it back with a third try just before time expired and tried to win it with time in the red. Five minutes in, and nearing England's 22, a knock on denied them the unlikeliest of victories.

On one level, England are still in the hunt to win this year’s 6N, Wales are not. On another, England didn’t actually create any tries, they scored one from a Welsh mistake (or dirty play from Itoje, take your pick) and kicked 6 penalties, missing 1 and their conversion. Wales scored three tries. Both sides have things they need to improve but if you look at Wales from Ireland to Scotland to England, they’ve clearly improved from match to match, although they still have some distance to go. England are still struggling to create against a good defence, they’re still going awol in the second half and their discipline is poor when they’re playing badly. None of these things have improved over the three matches we’ve seen. England to beat Ireland and France - fat chance.

Before I go, I just want to say something about the disgraceful quality of the commentary on this match. Youngs became the most capped English male rugby player with 115. Kudos to him. Rocky Clarke is the most capped England player, 137 before she retired 4 years ago. Alun Wyn Jones is the most capped rugby player, 149 for Wales (and not retired yet, although you’d have to think he might not carry on after this year) and 12 for Lions (he’s not going to get any more of those in 2025). Yet Youngs was repeatedly, wrongly, lauded as the mostly highly capped rugby player, or the most capped for his country. Both are just wrong.

Ireland v Italy

This match is really defined by two incidents in the first half. First Italy’s starting hooker was injured. Then his replacement got, correctly, red carded for a high tackle. That resulted in uncontested scrums and Italy losing another player thanks to law 3.20, one I disagree with but the referee correctly applied. I would just like to say that the Georgian ref who was in charge of his first tier one game handled the situation really well. The Italians were angry and confused, and in subsequent scrums kept trying not to have eight man scrums as well. He could have lost his temper and just penalised them, but he kept his cool, explained why and got it sorted out quickly without inflaming the situation. Italy actually finished with 12 thanks to a YC for pushing the ball into touch.

While the result was never in doubt, and when Ireland focused they scored relatively easily - with 15 v 13 you can just number up and two players are unmarked after all - Italy forced them to work even then, put bodies into rucks at smart times and turned the ball over, won penalties, forced knocks on and so forth.

Ultimately it was job done for Ireland but with dozens of wasted chances. While we never saw Italy have a real chance to do anything in attack there defence with 13 was exemplary - in other circumstances I’d say heroic - and that is a credit to their coaches, yes, but to them. In the 78th minute Ireland made a line break and were hot on attack, but Italy were running back and in the passing channels to intercept. No reason to be there except pride. Two minutes later, they’re holding up an Irish forward drive.

This could have been a disaster for France as well. But the bookies had a 40 point spread and it ended up 57-6. A win by only 51 points in those circumstances is not really good enough.

Happy Coaches

Galthié has to be the happiest, not only is France’s Grand Slam hope alive, they withstood a solid, sustained period of pressure from Scotland at Murrayfield and still ran out comfortable winners, with a bonus point. Remember that three weeks ago Scotland at home were good enough to beat England, so they’re not a pushover.

I’m putting Crowley as a clear second this week. Yes, Italy lost but they played their socks off, they defended throughout the match and made Ireland look ordinary. They did that with 13 players for 60 minutes. In previous years that wouldn’t have happened. He’s instilled a sense of pride and teamwork into this group. They need time and experience to become good but they’re getting there.

There are a three coaches in the middle this week. Farrell, Jones and Pivac. I’m going to start with Jones and Pivac. England won and are still, theoretically, in with a chance of winning the championship. But Itoje was largely absent again, they were essentially shut down by the Welsh defence except for penalties, and much more worryingly they still turn off in the second half. For Pivac, the injury list meant that the championship was probably out of reach this year anyway but if you look at this team and how they played over the full 80 compared to how they played against Ireland, they have come on in leaps and bounds. The smart money was on England to win before the match, and after that final restart, but the fact that the dream was alive that late and Wales out scored England three tries to one are all positives and a huge advance in three weeks. In the immediate, Jones is happier, come the end of the 6N, Pivac will be I think. Farrell is the one that’s hard to tell. Like Jones his side are still in the hunt if France slip up. But Ireland played for 60 minutes against 13 and 6 minutes against 12 players and just, in the last 2 minutes beat the spread that the bookies expected them to get. Some of that was Italy playing out of their skins, some was Ireland just being sloppy in a way we haven’t seen in months, years even. I think Farrell will be mad and the video session will be painful. For that reason, and given my thoughts on happiness are week by week, I’m going Jones, Pivac, Farrell in this middle group.

Townsend must be right at the bottom. In some alternate reality Scotland scored at least two more tries and both stopped those offloads before Moefana scored and tackled Fickou to end the first half ahead on the scoreboard as well. France gave a Gallic shrug instead of scoring three tries in the second half and their Grand Slam dream was over for another year. But in this reality none of that happened. Scotland blew one absolute sitter and a couple of other less gilt-edged chances. France did score at the end of the first half and just ran away. Scotland have Italy next and a chance to regroup and lick their wounds but that one must hurt.

Predictions

There’s another rest week next week, so with the usual provisos about changing my mind closer to the time when squads are announced and we know about injuries and so one, here we go.

Wales v France

Sadly, from my perspective, this is France’s match to lose. Wales are improving, there’s no doubt about it, and play well at home but France are the quality side of this tournament. They too have grown into it as the tournament has gone along. Wales might have the defence that challenges the French the most if it continues to improve like it has so far, but France are happy to play territory and take their points in threes. While Wales’ attack has improved, the French defence has been brutal and I’m not sure they’re up to unlocking that, not in a consistent enough way to win. However, France have always turned off in one away match and this is their last one this year… I don’t think they will but they could…

Italy v Scotland

Scotland need to build confidence. I don’t imagine they’ll take a young side, particularly after what happened to Ireland. Before the Ireland match I was going to going to say Italy are going to get smashed. But given what Crowley has done with his team, I think he can take what they did in Dublin and build on that. Having two weeks off lets him get further with them. Italy could win this. Smart money is on Scotland but it won’t be a shock if Italy win.

England v Ireland

The match that, ultimately, gets Fast Eddie sacked? I think France win the Slam this year, but I think Ireland keep the pressure on them all the way and comfortably beat England at home. Wales showed that Fortress Twickenham is a myth, it was far too close for comfort with a win filled with ifs and buts - against a Welsh side still ravaged by injury. Ireland are still a class side and should smash them aside with their normal high tempo and high skills, if they can find them again, which I think they will. They will be on notice that they need to after that performance against Italy. Assuming England go on to lose against France as well, there’s going to be a cluster of teams with two wins, three loses (England, Wales, Scotland) where bonus points and points difference decide their order at the end of the year. England could end up fifth again, but even if they’re third with a losing record like that, can he survive?