Men's Six Nations 2022, Round Four

This weekend started early, with a semi-traditional Friday night game between Wales and France, then two on the Saturday. Because France are chasing the Grand Slam, it probably started with the biggest match. Ireland might disagree, depending on results this week and next.

Wales v Ireland

Who says rugby needs to be high scoring to be exciting? One try and five penalties, France running out 13-9 winners and it was a match where both the Welsh and French fans were watching avidly throughout. Any smart neutrals should have been too.

For Wales to transition from the side that got stuffed by Ireland to the side that, so far, has held France to by far their lowest score and only one try is impressive. To make a side that smashed the All Blacks, has run in tries for fun against everyone, bonus points in their first three 6N matches, including against Ireland, look ordinary and confused is awe inspiring. On attack things are not as rosy. But the Welsh were good enough to make chances and then silly individual errors prevented them turning into points. As many teams over the years can tell you, creating chance, let alone points, against a Shaun Edwards defence, is not easy.

This match wasn’t only about Wales though. The French were tested and stretched defensively and limited offensively throughout in ways we really haven’t seen, probably since Japan in 2019. On offence they took most of the opportunities they were offered, on defence they closed down wave after wave of attack. The pass Davies dropped wasn’t a guaranteed try, Dupont was there and would have had to make a tackle. He had no right to be there but of course he was…

France will learn a lot from this and, most importantly, are still on track to win it all. But this was a great result for Wales too. They’re probably not back to getting a SF place in France next October as they rebuild but they’re much closer now than they looked after the Ireland match.

Italy v Scotland

This was a game where, at the end of the first half, the neutrals probably felt Italy deserved to be ahead but the scoreboard showed Scotland were. An intercept try and one poor kick and a couple of bad broken-field tackles gifted Scotland 12 points really quite quickly and they lead by 9 at the break. In the second half, the scoresheet shows that both sides scored two tries but, as usual, that doesn’t really tell the whole story. While it’s a bit less clear-cut than the first half, Italy exerted long periods of pressure that they didn’t manage to convert into points. On another day they could have scored another try if not two and you can’t help feel there’s an alternate universe where Italy won this game and it’s not some bizarre world, it’s one kick, one lineout and one pass away from this one.

It’s a real shame Italy didn’t win today, unless you’re Scottish I’m sure. I don’t think it’s coming next week, but next year, especially if Scotland are up first, Italy could certainly win again, for the first time in years.

England v Ireland

This is a game that was changed by a red card to Ewels in the second minute. As in the middle weekend, an extra player advantage to Ireland didn’t translate to comfortable win. They spilled ball, their lineout misfired and their scrums, even forgetting England had lost a lock, were terrible. With 20 minutes to go it was 15-15, but in the last 5 minutes (6 if you want to be really pedantic) Ireland stretched their lead as England finally tired and ran out a comfortable 17 point victory.

In the last round, I was critical of Ireland’s performance, only just beating the bookie’s spread against a 13-man Italy in the last 10 minutes or so. This week those same problems were evident against what it a far stronger England side. There was a sense that England lifted themselves “let’s do it for Charlie” but Ireland, equally, struggled. As this continued England seemed to establish a virtuous circle, buoyed by the obvious difficulties they were causing the Irish, while Ireland established a vicious circle, each minute it got closer to the end causing their nerves and discipline to fray just a little bit more, and these two fed off each other. This kept England in it. While Ireland might win this year’s Six Nations they really don’t deserve to and, come next autumn in France, there are still really serious if they’re good enough to go past the QF stage on this performance.

I’m going to divert back to talking about Wales for a minute. Last year there was a sense from many, outside of Wales and the rugby tragics, that Wales fluked their way to the win. Both the matches where they benefitted from a red card, those cards were the right colour under the laws, but the Six Nations attracts a batch of one-eyed fans who only watch the Six Nations, maybe the RWC too, and don’t keep up on the law changes. They saw Wales benefit from events that a year or two ago would not have seen any card and go on to win matches that they were not looking like winning and felt aggrieved. This year, Ireland have had their opposition see red cards in two matches and have really not taken full advantage in either of them. That’s not a good sign.

Happy Coaches

Galthie must be at the top of the heap. France were really tested but won. The Grand Slam is still theirs to win, beating England at home is all it takes. Until today England have not defended as well as Wales, and I’m still inclined to ask how much of that was great England defence and how much was poor Irish attack. But in the wider view, France have had to struggle, on both sides of the ball, and still came out on top, which is great for the team, and for the coaches. The team will bond closer for a tough victory, the coaches will have lots of things they take from this and work on with the team.

I’m putting Pivac in next. Wales had two genuine chances to score the tries either of which would have seen them beat France who are currently probably the best team in the world. From where we started this championship that’s unbelievable progress.

I have real problems sorting out the other four. I mean, it ought to be Farrell - if France slip up, Ireland can steal the 6N championship, but two matches in a row Ireland have shown the same problems so there’s something really wrong there. Townsend should be happy, Scotland won but honestly they were lucky. Jones can look at this performance and say his side really jelled and played well as a team for the first time. There’s a scenario where England finish fifth again but, ironically, losing this match in this way has probably kept him his job for the next 18 months. He’s happy he’s really got something to work with. Crowley’s Italy, like Pivac’s Wales, have clearly come on in leaps and bounds over this 6N. A win would have been nice, but they’ve still improved and looked genuinely threatening.

I’m going to go Jones, Farrell, Crowley, Townsend.

Fearless Predictions

Wales v Italy

Italy can defend for multiple phases and the Welsh attack is not firing on all cylinders but it is incredibly patient and does fire. In the other direction, once they got their act together, Wales restricted free-scoring France to one try and with a different referee would not have conceded any to cheating England. This may not be a bonus point win for Wales, although I hope it is, but it really should be a Welsh win.

Ireland v Scotland

Sadly for my Scottish friends, unless you contrive to have a player red carded you’re going to get hammered. Ireland will be frustrated after the last two matches and looking to heap the pressure on the French; you’re their whipping boys.

France v England

Assuming Ireland win, France really have to win to sew it up. If Ireland lose or draw other scenarios come into play. If France are really going to be the threat to win their home RWC next year that everyone, including me, thinks they are, they really have to start coming good now. We know England’s defences can be cracked. Scotland and Wales both did this, Wales for 20 minutes or so, Scotland for the whole game. On the flip side, France’s defence is not perfect. After more than decade with Wales and Edwards the Welsh defence was much more consistent but this French defence is certainly getting there. England’s attack is stuttering at best, Scotland and Wales both contained it comfortably. France really should win this. They’ve got the pieces to do it. Do they have the mentality? I think so.

Fun Aside

If France win, deny England any sort of bonus point. Wales win with a bonus point and Ireland lose, draw or allow Scotland a losing bonus point or a four try bonus point, England finish fifth again! Let’s hope!